Of these six political forces only Batkivshchina, if led by Tymoshenko, would be the real opposition in parliament. The US and EU demand not to imprison Tymoshenko and permit her to stand in elections therefore upsets the authorities plans for a managed democracy. Nevertheless, the authorities have a card up their sleeves against parties who attempt to be a real opposition by pressuring big business to not provide financial support (all Ukrainian parties are supported by big business). Batkivshchina, Kyiv insiders have told Jamestown, are in dire financial straits after big business deserted them.
Taras Kuzio in the latest Eurasia Daily Monitor (Volume 8, Issue 175, sorry no link) on the Rada elections. For those wondering why the former prime minister is on trial, this helps explain it. Keeping her tied up legally will make it easier to maintain political control in Ukraine for the current president. Below Kuzio looks at the parties most likely to enter the next Rada.
Plans for parliament aim to ensure it is compliant and acts as a rubber stamp. Of the five political parties that are likely to enter parliament only one – Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchina (Fatherland) – will not be under their control:
1. Party of Regions and the Communist Party are traditional allies drawing on the same group of voters and regions.
2. Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Tigipko’s Silna Ukrayina (Strong Ukraine) party will merge with the Party of Regions. Tigipko came third with 13 percent in the 2010 elections, drawing on middle class young Ukrainians.
3. Front for Change, led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, is in negotiations with Donetsk oligarch Rinat Akhmetov for a $140 million election war chest in return for 30 percent to 50 percent of the seats (Ukrayinska Pravda, September 2). Inside sources in Kyiv told Jamestown that Presidential Administration head Serhiy Levochkin and Akhmetov are in competition for Front for Change which will occupy Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine “constructive opposition” niche (Ukrayinska Pravda, July 19, 21, September 6, 22).
4. Batkivshchina will receive fewer seats than in 2007, when it obtained 31 percent, under a mixed election system. In the 2010 local elections Batkivshchina was obstructed from participating in two of its strongholds, Kyiv and Lviv. With Tymoshenko in jail, the authorities had planned to install Batkivshchina Luhansk deputy Natalia Korolevska as its new leader. Batkivshchina, like Front for Change, would have thereby been co-opted.
5. Svoboda (Freedom) nationalist party may enter parliament, if the threshold is not raised from 3 percent to 5 percent. There have long been rumors that Svoboda receives financing from the Party of Regions (see critical March and May reports by pro-Yanukovych American Institute Ukraine atwww.aminuk.org).
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