Some analysts have suggested that the real reason for the Tymoshenko trial and arrest is the price of gas. If the 2009 accords, in which Ukraine agreed to pay $450 for 1,000 cubic meters of gas for a 10-year period are declared illegal by a court, Ukraine might be in a position to renegotiate a more advantageous deal with Russia. Yanukovych desperately wants cheaper gas from the Russians. He has made several overtures to Moscow hoping to drive the price down, among them prolonging the Russia Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol for 25 years. While this got him a price reduction, the Kremlin has been unwilling to renegotiate the basic terms of the gas agreement.
From
Radio Free Europe, the trial of Yulia Tymoshenko continues along with the sideshow. So in order to get cheaper gas Yanukovych goes after is biggest opponent?
The Economist presents other explanations for her prosecution.
One theory is that his government wants to test Europe's resolve on Ukraine, to see how far they can tilt towards authoritarianism before the so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, due to be signed later this year or early next, comes under threat.
An alternative view is that one of Mr Yanukovich's wealthy backers is insisting on Ms Tymoshenko's punishment. Some have mentioned Dmytro Firtash, co-owner of RosUkrEnergo, the intermediary company that Ms Tymoshenko cut out of gas dealings with Russia. There is no direct evidence for this, however.
Or perhaps it is simply about personal animosity. "At first they didn't arrest her because they knew [it] would have bad international implications", notes Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta Center For Applied Political Studies, a think-tank. "But then it seems they just got too annoyed by the way she was behaving in court." Ms Tymoshenko was taken into custody on August 5th, six weeks into her trial.
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