Blue &Yellow: Politics and Economics in Ukraine

Some analysts have suggested that the real reason for the Tymoshenko trial and arrest is the price of gas. If the 2009 accords, in which Ukraine agreed to pay $450 for 1,000 cubic meters of gas for a 10-year period are declared illegal by a court, Ukraine might be in a position to renegotiate a more advantageous deal with Russia. Yanukovych desperately wants cheaper gas from the Russians. He has made several overtures to Moscow hoping to drive the price down, among them prolonging the Russia Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol for 25 years. While this got him a price reduction, the Kremlin has been unwilling to renegotiate the basic terms of the gas agreement.

 From Radio Free Europe, the trial of Yulia Tymoshenko continues along with the sideshow. So in order to get cheaper gas Yanukovych goes after is biggest opponent? The Economist presents other explanations for her prosecution.

One theory is that his government wants to test Europe's resolve on Ukraine, to see how far they can tilt towards authoritarianism before the so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, due to be signed later this year or early next, comes under threat.
An alternative view is that one of Mr Yanukovich's wealthy backers is insisting on Ms Tymoshenko's punishment. Some have mentioned Dmytro Firtash, co-owner of RosUkrEnergo, the intermediary company that Ms Tymoshenko cut out of gas dealings with Russia. There is no direct evidence for this, however.
Or perhaps it is simply about personal animosity. "At first they didn't arrest her because they knew [it] would have bad international implications", notes Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta Center For Applied Political Studies, a think-tank. "But then it seems they just got too annoyed by the way she was behaving in court." Ms Tymoshenko was taken into custody on August 5th, six weeks into her trial.

"Only political motives could have played a role here," said Yushchenko, who was greeted by angry chants from Tymoshenko's supporters in the courtroom. "National interests were traded for political considerations."Yushchenko suggested that Tymoshenko, who was then preparing to run in the 2010 presidential elections, wanted to be seen as a "saviour" who ended a bitter pricing dispute with Moscow. The dispute led to Russia halting supplies to Ukraine, which caused shortages for customers across Europe.He also claimed Tymoshenko ignored Ukrainian interests for the sake of special relations with Russian leaders, saying: "Russia had to have a pliant pro-Russian leader

Via The Guardian, former President Yushchenko testifies against Yulia Tymoshenko. While they were both on the "Orange" side, the two constantly feuded for years. As noted in a previous post about the 2010  presidential election Yushchenko had already shifted his support to Yanukovych prior to the second round of the election. The same Yanukovych who signed that Crimean base deal lease with Russia after becoming president. The same Yanukovych accused of using heavy handed tactics against his opponents. 

A second member of Ukraine’s usually fractious political opposition also pivoted to support Ms. Tymoshenko on Monday. Arseniy P. Yatsenyuk, a 37-year-old former chairman of Parliament and foreign minister, attended the court on Monday to hear the motions for Ms. Tymoshenko’s release. He emerged to tell reporters that the trial was “a clear threat to Ukrainian democracy.”
“This is not just personal support for the former prime minister,” he said. “This is support to the institute of democracy that is opposition. This could happen to anyone in Ukraine’s political environment. We are here to support democracy.”
In another prominent show of support over the weekend, Vitali Klitschko, the World Boxing Council heavyweight champion and an upstart in Ukrainian politics, announced he would delay a title fight planned for September to draw attention to Ms. Tymoshenko’s arrest.

From the New York Times, Tymoshenko is still in jail. A blog post in The Economist notes that the former prime minister has been a difficult defendant, but "disrespectful courtroom behaviour hardly justified her arrest". Tymoshenko and her party have been on the defensive since Viktor Yanukovych succeed Viktor Yushchenko as president. While there have been protests against this, Yanukovych hasn't yielded. Ostensibly, she is being tried for abuse of power when she signed new gas contracts in 2009. However,  Taras Kuzio is correct in claiming that the president created a Yukos style political event whose target is former prime minister and her party.