Blue &Yellow: Politics and Economics in Ukraine

Picture from Ukrainian magazine the Week, putting into pictures the view by some that Ukraine will be under threat next by Russia.

This article from DT discusses a poll taken after the conflict began and asked respondents their take on the conflict. The poll results reflected the regional differences in attitude among Ukrainians. It alo showed that Ukrainians did not agree with Saakashvili's decision to invade in response to the shelling.

Appraising the steps taken by Moscow against Georgia, 44.4 percent of respondents called them “an aggression against a sovereign state” while 41.4 percent called them “a peacekeeping operation.” As we can see, two diametrically opposite opinions are shared almost fifty-fifty and differ territorially. Russia was called an aggressor by 72.9 percent of respondents in the west of the country, 62.5 percent in the Kyiv region, and 58.5 percent in the central parts of the country. At the same time, Russia’s military actions in Georgia were called “a peacekeeping operation” by 67.1 percent of respondents in the southern regions (an impressive 73.2 percent in Crimea) and 52.2 percent in the east. The figures partially prove that Ukrainian society is split and disprove some expert forecasts of possible political consolidation over the events in the Caucasus.

It is symptomatic that Russia looks like an aggressor in the eyes of 60 percent of respondents aged between 18 and 19 while 52.3 percent of respondents aged over 60 view it as a peacemaker.

Opinions about Georgia’s actions are quite interesting as well. On the one hand, 50.9 percent of respondents (74.6% in Crimea and 27.1% in the west) called the use of force against South Ossetia “an act of aggression”; 38.3 percent (64.9% in the west, 46.7% in the Kyiv region, and 44.5% in the central regions) believe that it was necessary for preserving the country’s territorial integrity.

On the other hand, very few respondents were positive about Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili’s decision to bomb and shell the breakaway republic and bring troops there. Only 19.5 percent called it “a normal reaction to the firing attacks on Georgian villages from South Ossetia. Notably, this opinion is shared almost equally in all parts of Ukraine – from 22.5% in the center to 17.6% in the east. Quite unexpectedly, 57.4 percent of respondents (61.5% in the center, 60% in Kyiv, 58% in the west, 56.3% in the east, and 53.5% in the south) called the use of force against South Ossetia “an unjustified and overemotional reaction to Russian provocations.”

Another important detail from the article concerns support for joining NATO.

51.4 percent said they were “strongly against” it. The total figure – more than 63 percent – looks very impressive. So is the very insignificant number of undecided respondents – a mere 3.3 percent.

Another 12% are against joining NATO but not as strongly as the 51.4 . More interestingly,

As many as 47.1 percent of respondents acknowledge the probability of an armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia