Many commentators predict a narrow victory by opposition leader Yanukovich, but fiery Prime Minister Tymoshenko is threatening to summon protesters in a replay of the 2004 "Orange Revolution" if she deems the second-round election unfair.From Reuters, it seems that the conventional view on the second round of the presidential election is that Yanukovych is still the favorite to win. As to the idea that there will be mass protests like in 2004, that seems unlikely. While Yushchenko in 2004 could be credited with reforming the economy (leading to economic growth), Tymoshenko has led Ukraine during a difficult economic contraction where she spent almost the entire past year feuding with the president.
Two articles in Bloomberg and FT's Lex column note that the big worry from the election tomorrow is that the political paralysis will remain. As the Bloomberg story notes a Yanukovych presidency could lead to further delays in implementing economic reforms, if Yanukovych calls early Rada elections. However, this past week's events showed BYuT lacks a working majority in the Rada. The Lex column has it right that political stability is needed after the election, regardless of the winner.
It is arguably less important which candidate wins Sunday’s second round than that the poll produces a clean result without lengthy protests, enabling political stability to be quickly achieved. With an economy still tottering after shrinking 15 per cent last year, Ukraine must urgently get a stalled $16bn International Monetary Fund bail-out programme back on track.
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