Every month Ukraine announces that it paid Russia for gas, but every month also brings a swirl of rumors about a new gas dispute. The issue will remain as Ukraine gears itself for the presidential election in January 2010. While Yushchenko still seeks
changes to the gas agreement between Russia and Ukraine, Russia isn't interested. The gas deal is working perfectly for them, it keeps Ukraine off balance as its forced to meet its obligations or face a possible cut off.
“Russia’s possible refusal to develop the gas contracts is a serious threat to [national energy firm] Naftogaz’s operations and consequently the uninterrupted transits of Russian natural gas via Ukraine,” the press service quoted Bohdan Sokolovskiy as saying.
The statement came after President Dmitry Medvedev told the Gazprom chief on Monday that the energy giant should stop paying Ukraine’s transit fees in advance and stick to the January agreement that ended a gas row between the ex-Soviet allies, which does not include provisions on advance payments.
Analysts suggested the instruction could be followed by a refusal to pay higher transit fees to Ukraine despite an agreement reached by the two countries’ prime ministers earlier this month.
Yulia Tymoshenko and Vladimir Putin agreed in Poland last week that Ukraine would import less gas than agreed in the contracts without paying any fines, and would increase its transit fees.
FT's
article on a possible new gas war notes that Gazprom is being cryptic concerning winter gas supplies. Ukraine holding its election in January is a gift from heaven for Russia, who could generate another dispute close to or during the election. Yanukovych can then ride to the rescue and "resolve" the problem, granted there is the possibility that the heavy interference would backfire, aiding Tymoshenko or even Yatsenuik. Nevertheless, I expect to see Russian soft power on full display this coming winter.
“I hope we have no catastrophe in winter,” said the Gazprom boss ominously. Last January, when Kiev failed to pay on time and Russia cut off Ukraine’s supplies for two weeks, there were extensive shortages in central and south east Europe. About 80 per cent of Russia’s gas to the European Union flows through Ukraine through the same network as Ukraine’s own supplies.
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