This is because Moldova elects its president indirectly, in parliament, by a super-majority of 61 out of 101 seats. Despite the opposition's legitimate and much-vaunted "victory," the Communists remain by far the country's single most popular party. Controlling nearly half the seats in the legislature (48 to the united opposition's 53), they can block any presidential candidate they wish. On top of this, Voronin is still currently acting president and the Moldovan constitution, twisted with contradictions, fails to spell out clearly when he must relinquish the post in the absence of a new, duly-elected chief executive.
Perilously, this little country's complex electoral legislation allows
only two relatively quick bites at the apple to elect a president; if
none emerges, parliament must once more be dissolved. The rub is that
the Moldovan constitution permits only one dissolution of parliament
per year, and that has already happened in 2009.
Thus, bar a deal on a grand coalition or a neutral president
acceptable to all, Voronin will argue that he remains acting president
until a new, elected president is sworn in. The opposition will say
that the new speaker of parliament (whom it will select quite soon with
its simple majority) should, by succession in the absence of a
full-fledged president, become the country's acting head. Both
arguments have support in law, and so it may fall to the constitutional
court - notoriously friendly to the Communists - to decide who will be
Moldova's leader until next year.
Another article on the coalition negotiations in Moldova show that the Communists aren't interested in working with the new Alliance for European Integration. They see a chance to form a coalition with one of the factions in the alliance. Now for a Ukraine-like scenario to play itself in Moldova, the Communists need successsfully to pull one of the factions and elect a president.
Democratic Party Chairman Marian Lupu has refuted rumors that his or his party would have any separate deals with the communists. On Monday, some online websites posted articles that the Communists are allegedly ready to vote for him as candidate for the Moldovan presidency provided he agrees to stand for the post as the candidate of the left-centrist coalition.
Lupu stated to Stirea Zilei portal that rumors are but an attempt to weaken the Alliance for European Integration."Apparently, the Communists proceed from the idea, being lately disseminated so massively, that Marian Lupu allegedly dreams to become President of Moldova by hook or by crook. I repeat I have never had an obsession to become the head of state", Lupu said.
Just a rumor, but the alliance just came into existence and as the Orange coalition showed, factions united against a common enemy can break down. The alliance managed to elect a speaker, but now comes the tough part.
EDM's (Volume 6, Issue 148) Vladimir Socor offers three scenarios that Moldova could face as the factions in Parliament vie for power. As scenario three indicates, the likelihood of the new alliance staying together isn't very good. Also like Regions in Ukraine, the Communists could benefit from being in opposition, even though its unclear why autumn is thought to be when the economic crisis will hit"full force".
3. Temporary abdication of the Communist Party from power. The
party leadership warns, or bluffs, that it may go into opposition
(Moldpres, July 30-August 1). In that event, a government could
theoretically be formed by an alliance of four parties: the
Liberal, Liberal-Democrat, Democratic, and Our Moldova, adding up
to 53 seats in the parliament. However, these parties' differences
of outlook and interests would make it very unlikely and perhaps
impossible to create and maintain such an alliance. The Liberal
Party's close ties with Bucharest and its confrontational style
would pose additional problems. This party does not aim to govern,
but rather to gather strength as the main opposition (and sole
"right-wing") force. Meanwhile, the communist leadership feels
tempted to go into opposition before the economic crisis hits
Moldova with full force by the fall. In that case, a non-communist
government could soon be brought down by the economic crisis and
powerful communist opposition, even before the post-communist
transition could start in earnest.
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