Biden Trip: One last look

Radio Free Europe on how the Biden visit to Ukraine and Georgia can be perceived as a "color reset" that tried to balance the need to support the two countries, but distance themselves from the individuals associated with the colored revolutions.


The message Biden was sending to both the Georgian and Ukrainian was that the Rose and Orange revolutions were works in progress, that they were still incomplete, and that their promise was yet to be fulfilled

But a deeper signal Biden appeared to be sending was that institutions are more important than individuals and that Washington would structure its policies toward these two allies accordingly.In 2003 and 2004, Georgian and Ukraine brought the term “colored revolutions” into the international political lexicon to describe pro-Western popular uprisings that usher in a more democratic form of governance.


Despite the widespread popular dissent and participation that made the Rose and Orange Revolutions possible, each quickly became personalized and tightly identified with their leaders. In the case of Georgia with Saakashvili’s charismatic style of rule; in Ukraine with the troubled political tandem of President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.


Its a good assessment by RFE, the US acknowledges the political problems that plague both countries and the need to have a arm's length relationship, especially in the case of Yushchenko who has low chances of winning a second term. The president is a lame duck, he can only obstruct or block the other factions, but his influence is weak. The US realizes that there could be a Yanukovych presidency or even a Yatsenyuik one. Tymoshenko's success in the next election will be tied to her success in containing the economic crisis in the country. Therefore the US is hedging its bets by depersonalizing the relationship, at least until it knows who is the new president. The upcoming presidential election may put to test if there has been a reset in the relationship between Russia and the US. How much interference will each side tolerate in Ukraine?


Meanwhile, Steven LeVine sees the overall trip to Georgia and Ukraine as a way to reassure troubled neighbors that US still rejects a Russian sphere of influence, at the rhetorical level at least.


at Tuesday, July 28, 2009

0 comments:

Post a Comment