Blue &Yellow: Politics and Economics in Ukraine

In a little over a month Ukraine is supposed to have early Rada election (14 December), but its very uncertain if this will take place. Wih no money available for the election, the election will either be postponed until January or Yushchenko may cancel his decree. DT has an interesting piece on the changing attiude toward the early election by Regions, Our Ukraine, and members of the presidential secretariat 

Bankova [street in downtown Kyiv, seat of the Presidential Secretariat] is evidently revising its initial plans. Yushchenko keeps insisting on the early election, but his insistence is losing resolve. The Premier is so far making the most of her trump cards – her influence on courts and control over the central budget. The presidential decree [on the parliament’s dissolution and the preterm election] is still in court limbo and the Central Election Commission is still waiting for money to launch the election campaign. It is already clear to everyone that the election will not take place this year. But will it do Yushchenko any good next year? His initial aim – to get rid of Tymoshenko – makes no sense now. He took this aim in September, but under the present circumstances the country will get a new government in late spring at the earliest – just a couple of weeks ahead of the presidential race.

Besides, Yushchenko is beginning to see the approaching economic danger. Those who have the privilege of contacting him are still doubtful whether he realizes the hugeness of the looming threat. He simply turned a blind eye to it until the nosedive of the national currency drew him from his idées fixes – the NATO Membership Action Plan, the Holodomor [international recognition of the Great Famine of 1932-1933], and the early election. Yushchenko must have come to realize that in the coming months the country can not remain without the parliament and government and that Tymoshenko’s premiership might eventually earn him good political fortune as all impacts of the crisis could be blamed on her.

Yushchenko’s “alter ego” Baloha [chief of the Presidential Secretariat.] is not interested in the early election, either. He sees that his political party [Yedyniy Tsentr (United Center) composed of renegade members of the pro-presidential bloc Our Ukraine and other rightist and centrist parties] stands no chance of entering the new parliament. Seeing that the OU is on the verge of political death, its “flexible” members refuse to ally with Baloha’s party in an election bloc and even demand guarantees from Yushchenko that after the election he will not force them to join the Regions Party in a new coalition.

The latest surveys show that the pro-presidential political force has meager electoral chances. Baloha does not want to be left holding the bag after his political project fails and so has to restrain his ardor.

Yushchenko and his confidants keep declaring their determination to follow through, but their serious doubts as to the expediency of their venture are already visible.

The Regions Party is no longer enthusiastic about the election race. Most of its members, who hated to ally with Tymoshenko, regarded the early election as the only reasonable alternative to such an alliance, but now this “hard choice” looks petty vis-à-vis a far more serious problem: the party’s sponsors are running out of money and are reluctant to invest in the election campaign. One of them said recently, “The robbed don’t perform charities.” They are not even ready to continue paying the regular “party tithe.” Why should they sponsor Yushchenko’s election campaign?