Russia says pay up

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With  both countries impacted by the global economic crisis, Russia has decided to play an old hand:asking for debt repayment. Russia (Gazprom) now says that Ukraine will pay $400 per 1000 cubic meters of gas next year. Tymoshenko rejects Russia's claim. The Russian Ambassador to Ukraine, Viktor Chernomydin, called it high and said that the two sides should negotiate on this. However, RIA Novosti reports that Yushchenko ordered the government to pay the gas debt. This may be a specific retaliation for UKrainian arms to Georgia, but Russia does this often enough that it does not matter why they are doing it. Itar -Tass excert below concerning the debt issue. 
Miller said Gazprom had been in talks with Ukraine over a long-term gas supply contract for the past few days. It is the overdue debt that hampers the negotiations, he explained.

"At the corporate level the degree of readiness is high. All the necessary documents are in place," he said. Under an agreement, the countries are to begin settlements for gas supplies at free market prices, based on the formula effective for the European states.

Ukraine has so far failed to meet a number of conditions, such as the transfer to a new system of relations, to direct supplies to Naftogaz, and the signing of contracts under which gas would be delivered at fixed prices in the first two years, in 2009 and 2010.

"The debt issue remains unsettled," Miller said.

The debt is astronomical, so the question "Where is the money?" is absolutely appropriate.

"We see no progress in relations with Ukraine, and we have no certainty that we shall ever see the money," Miller said.

Medvedev replied that in that case, all measures available in bilateral relations should be employed - contractual and administrative.
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NATO MAP not coming soon

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Next month NATO will meet to discuss Georgia and Ukraine, this follows a progress review for Ukraine this month. However, there will be no MAP offering for Ukraine this year. Perhaps it was the Georgian war, which made some NATO members wary about angering Russia and triggering a regional conflict. Countries like Germany, Bulgaria, and France may prefer a less confrontational relationship. Of course the economic crisis has also shifted attention away from regional security issues to internal economic issues and their global effects. Below is an excerpt from Interfax, quoting the Ukrainian defense minister about not joining this year.


Ukraine will not join NATO soon, Ukrainian Defense Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov said.

"Let's be realists. This will not happen soon," Yekhanurov told the ICTV channel on Monday evening.

If Ukraine is given the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP), this does not mean that it will become an alliance member by default, the minister said, adding that Ukraine has yet to take a number of actions to reform the political, economic and security spheres.

As of now, one should depoliticize
Ukraine's entry to NATO and give Ukraine's intention a pragmatic look, he said. "We are arguing about yesterday's issue. One should move forward, no matter what NATO's relations with the Soviet Union were. A pattern that will be in the future is important to us," Yekhanurov said.

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President's remarks about Holodmor

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Another very interesting article from Interfax about Yushchenko explicitly saying that the communist regime, not Russia was responsible for the famine in Ukraine in 1933. Interesting because it may be a strategic shift away, perhaps Yushchenko wants to remove an issue that was making it hard for him to establish a warm relationship with Putin/Medvedev and decrease tension between the two countries. 
KIEV, November 19 (RIA Novosti) - Ukraine insists the Stalin-era famine known as the Holodomor was an act of genocide against the Ukrainian people, but does not blame any individual state for it, the country's president said on Wednesday.

Speaking at a ceremony to unveil a memorial in a village in western Ukraine, one of the areas hardest hit by the early 1930s famine, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said, as quoted by his press service: "Ukraine does not blame any nation or state for the great famine."

Yushchenko said "the totalitarian Communist regime" was to blame for the Holodomor.

Nationalist groups in ex-Soviet Ukraine have insisted Russia, as legal successor to the former Soviet Union, must be responsible for the tragedy and have demanded compensation.

The famine was caused by forced collectivization. Estimates as to the amount of victims in Ukraine vary greatly, with some 2 million being the lower end of the scale. British historian Robert Service has suggested that some 14 million people lost their lives.

The famine also took the lives of millions of people from different ethnic groups in vast territories in the North Caucasus, the Volga region, central Russia, Kazakhstan, west Siberia, and the south Urals.

Ukraine is holding Holodomor commemoration events on November 17 through 22.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has declined to attend the events, saying in a letter to Yushchenko last week that Kiev has used the famine to drive a wedge between Ukraine and Russia. He also urged efforts to forge a common position on the tragedy.

"Ukraine has been using the tragic events of the early 1930s to achieve its political ends," Medvedev said.

Kiev's attempts to declare the Holodomor an act of genocide by the Soviet authorities are "aimed at disuniting our nations, which have for centuries been linked by historical, cultural and spiritual bonds, special friendship and mutual trust," Medvedev said.

"At the moment, I do not believe my participation in Holodomor commemoration events is possible," Medvedev said.

Kiev said it was disappointed by the statement.

Ukraine has been seeking international recognition for the Stalin-era famine as an act of genocide. The United Nations refused last month to include the famine on its agenda, supporting Russia's recommendation.

Eight heads of state, including the presidents of the three ex-Soviet Baltic states, Poland and Georgia, were reported to be due to attend a forum and commemoration events on this week's 75th anniversary of the Holodomor. Some 40 foreign delegations are also expected to attend.

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Ukrainian Arms for Georgia: Update

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Below is an article from ITAR-TASS about a probe by the Ukrainian Security Serviceon the arms sent to Ukraine from Georgia. This issue hasn't generated as much headlines since the economic crisis erupted in September. However, perhaps with things starting to settle (hopefully) we'll start seeing more articles about this.
KIEV, November 19 (Itar-Tass) - The probe conducted by the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) is "a political contract and a fake," the ad hoc investigation commission of Verkhovnaya Rada (parliament) stated on Tuesday.

The lawmakers from the commission on ascertaining facts of sale of Ukrainian military equipment in violation of the country's legislation and international norms, said the objective of the SBU's probe was to "hide the criminal actions and corruption of individuals from (President Viktor) Yushchenko's closest milieu."

"The SBU's actions are aimed at deliberate misinformation of the Ukrainian citizens," the commission said.

A preliminary report by the commission is due shortly. The parliamentarians are planning to present "new evidence and a legal and political evaluation of the actions by the ruling regime."

The commission also demanded "an immediate report by acting SBU chief Nalivaichenko in the parliament and his personal responsibility for the gross violations of the Constitution and the Ukrainian law.

Lawmakers said they had repeatedly - and unsuccessfully - invited Nalivaichenko to supply the information necessary for their probe. "But during the period of the commission's work, we have not received a single answer to our inquires, nor have we met with the SBU leadership at our sessions," they claimed.

Earlier on Tuesday, head of the ad hoc commission Valery Konovalyuk accused the SBU of illegal arms sales to Georgia, accompanied by "serious financial violations,' which lost the state budget hundreds of million dollars."

On November, 12, the SBU opened a criminal case over the divulging of confidential information, following the publication on the Internet of a copy of the letter by Ukrspetsexport, the state weapons exporting company, together with Konovalyuk's comments on the document. Konovalyuk then was summoned for interrogation at the SBU.

Konovalyuk earlier stated that Ukraine was selling armaments to Georgia even after the conflict in South Ossetia in August, and that it continues to sell, while the proceeds from arms sales do not end up in the budget. According to the commission's information, President Viktor Yushchenko is one the persons behind the supplies.

In October, director of the department for military security issues under Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Sergei Khimchenko said Kiev would continue to sell armaments to Georgia, in accordance with concluded contracts.

Ukraine mostly supplies to Georgia Soviet-era armaments, except for the Shkval combat module. Arms sales to Georgia account for 7 percent of all Ukraine's weapons exports, Khimchenko said.

He denied Ukraine's supplying weapons to Georgia during its aggression against South Ossetia, dismissing the allegations that weapons were disguised as humanitarian aid.

Khimchenko also denied the reports that Ukrainian military specialists had taken part in the fighting on Georgia's side.

There were 17 specialists servicing military equipment at that time (in August), which belonged to Ukrainian companies. "However when hostilities began, they all were evacuated to Ukraine on August 7-13," the director said.

Konovalyuk asserts that Ukraine has sold missile air defense systems to the detriment of its defense capability.

"Our data prove that over the past four years virtually all weapons were sold at understated prices. For example, a Kalashnikov assault rifle was sold for 547 hrivnas (one U.S. dollar buys approximately 5.6 hrivnas), a T-72 tank for 240,000-250,000 hrivnas," Konovalyuk said.

"According to our estimates, arms exports to Georgia considerably exceeded this country's defense demands. This concerns offensive weapons such as Pion, Grad and Shkval systems. We bear moral responsibility for the fact that Ukrainian weapons, delivered to the Caucasus, resulted in the death of civilians and Russian peacekeepers," he said.

Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council denied that arms supplies to Georgia were illegal.

"Georgia was not and is not under sanctions or embargo of the U.N. Security Council, the OSCE, the European Union or other international organizations," the council said.

The council said Ukraine cooperated with Georgia "absolutely transparently" by providing all information about its arms exports to the U.N. Register and other international agencies, and that Konovalyuk's assertions that the Ukrainian armaments had been sold to Georgia underpriced were "unprofessional and subjective".

Konovalyuk insisted that over the last three years Ukraine had sold two billion U.S. dollars worth of arms, while only 840 million U.S. dollars reached the state budget.

"The commission has received information from the state treasury, which clearly indicates that a great deal of the money Ukraine should have received from the sale of arms ended up outside the state budget and the Defense Ministry," he said.

The director general of the Ukrspetsexport weapons trading company Sergei Bondarchuk said his country had supplied mainly defense systems to Georgia.

"As for Georgia, the supplies mostly related to defense, not assault," Bondarchuk said, adding, "Grads (salvo systems) wee not supplied."

Kiev also supplied to Georgia radio electronic warfare systems, radars and air defense equipment.
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From Nasha Ukraina to United Center

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The old presidential party bloc OUPS seems to be on its final legs, with more time now available before the next election the president is cultivating his new party of power, United Center.  The bloc has now fragmented and now the possibility that United Center could be a viable partner for a new coalition even if its not yet a official Rada faction. Below is an interesting excerpt from DT concerning the demise of the bloc. 

From the inception of joint work, the Presidential Secretariat attacked the government and the Prime Minister, who kept her patience and didn’t respond until September. Meanwhile, the fight between Our Ukraine and Yediny Tsentr for certain positions dragged on. Yediny Tsentr tried to deprive Our Ukraine of the party organizations in the regions. Even the withdrawal of two MPs from the bloc (one of which was Yuriy But, member of People’s Self-defense) and President Yushchenko’s appeals to cling together could hardly contribute to consolidation of the bloc. A protracted conflict had gradually arisen between the People Self-defense and the head of the Presidential Secretariat, who mostly talked and refused to listen to the opinions of others during those few meetings held by the bloc.

Incidentally, everything had become clear by the end of the last summer: Bankovaya [Kyiv’s street where the Presidential Secretariat is located] has changed its priorities. Its representatives preferred to communicate with Kolesnikov and Akhmetov rather than with the first person on OUPS’s list, Yuriy Lutsenko. None of the MPs was happy about this except for Yediny Tsenr, which made no secret of its intention to cooperate with a “similar to it” group of the Party of Regions.

August brought news about the Presidential Secretariat actively working on the creation of a coalition comprised of OUPS, the Party of Regions and Lytvyn Bloc. However, it didn’t come to pass as BYuT had beaten them to the punch. The Georgian crisis and the refusal of BYuT to accuse the Russians of aggression against Georgia as well the joint voting of BYuT with the Party of Regions gave Bankovaya grounds to accuse their partners from the coalition of betrayal (by the way, Our Ukraine and Yediny Tsentr are now doing the same). In that situation, Yushchenko needed Vyacheslav Kyrylenko even more than Yediny Tsentr, because Kyrylenko enjoyed the support of the majority from Our Ukraine and the Ukrainian National Party of Yuriy Kostenko, and Yediny Tsentr was ready to support the dissolution of the coalition anyway. Afterwards, using telephone voting and having received the blessing of the President of Ukraine, the coalition of democratic forces was destroyed. That event split OUPS since the votes for the coalition and against it were almost even

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No early election, so what's next in the Rada?

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The financial crisis may have forced Yushchenko to cancel early elections, but now a new battle will be fought over control of the Rada.  BYuT has said that its willing to support Volodomir Lytvyn on the first attempt in the Rada.  One article from DT sees a pattern of mutual self destruction caused by distrust among the major players in Ukraine. 

The common threat could bring them together in standing up to the candidate for autocracy. Yuliya Tymoshenko has an ace up her sleeve for this occasion. Every time Viktor Yushchenko tries to have the current Constitution revised, she will insist on pre-term presidential elections since the revision entails a change in the scope of presidential powers. Should Yushchenko drive the Prime Minister to the end of her tether, she will work to have the Supreme Court decision on the so-called “third round” of the 2004 election annulled; the idea being as unlawful as Yushchenko’s plan to reverse the political reform.

The plan of the Party of Regions is much simpler. They are going to stand on the sidelines, letting Tymoshenko and Yushchenko to destroy each other and lending a “helping hand” to either party as needed. They think it will facilitate and speed up their return to power. In their opinion, the economic crisis will help them attain their goal.

The Party of Regions is still in favour of the snap elections. They promote the idea of allocating funds for the election campaign from the 2009 state budget. They could even refuse to vote for the budget if Tymoshenko ignores their demands. The Party of Regions should remember, however, that they risk losing voters if they block the adoption of the budget in the midst of economic hardships.

Leaders of the Party of Regions are considering withdrawing from the Verkhovna Rada, which would make early elections unavoidable. Yet Yanukovych and his crew are saving this scenario for later. They are waiting for Tymoshenko’s popularity rating to hit rock-bottom. As for Yushchenko’s rating, the Party of Regions has long stopped paying attention to these figures.

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Ukraine: Progress toward MAP?

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Nato Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer discussed  the country's progress in becoming a member a NATO meeting in Estonia. The secretary general commented that the chances of a  NATO Membership Action Plan is slim considering the shaky political situation in Ukraine, but assured Ukraine that the country is seen as a democracy. 

"I doubt very much that either in Estonia or at the ministerial (in December) or even at the NATO summit next year Ukraine is going to get an invitation to a MAP, unless of course something dramatic is going to happen," said Janusz Bugajski, of Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

He cited Ukraine's political instability as a major reason for the country not getting the action plan.

This was shown again on Wednesday when Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko dropped plans for an early parliamentary election, which he had wanted to resolve political deadlock after the break-up of a coalition led by him and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, his former ally and now arch rival.

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Rada in Search of a New Speaker

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The Rada has accepted the resignation of Arsen Yatsenyuk as speaker, but a new speaker has not been selected to replace him. The vote to took place yesterday and was strongly supported by Regions, Communists, and Bloc Lytvyn. However, some members from OU-SD also voted for the dismissal.  With his dismissal, speculation now mounts on who will be a new speaker, especially with the status of the Rada still unclear.  Kyiv Post reports that the president will not hold a new election this year. 

After the vote Yatsenyuk, 34, said he was forced to resign for being too “independent as a speaker,” Ukrainian News reported. OUPSD legislator Ihor Kril, an ally of Viktor Baloha, the head of the presidential secretariat, accused his fellow faction member Yatsenyuk of populism and failing to “organize productive work of the lawmaking body. Only one anti-crisis draft law – that’s the result of an entire month’s of work in parliament,” Kril.

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IMF rescue package

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Ukraine's weak economy has begun to stabilize, with fears of a genral run on the bank diminishing and the hryvnia stopping its slide against the dollar. Its official rate is currenlty at 5.78 to the dollar, in August it was at 4.85 to the dollar. The Rada also passed a key rescue package that the IMF wanted in condition for rescue funds. 

 

 The package provided for: the creation of a government stabilization fund to help companies repay foreign debts and invest in domestic projects; the possibility of nationalizing problem banks; attracting loans from international financial organizations; and dropping the government’s populist plan to increase minimum wages (Ukrainska Pravda, October 31).

On November 5 the IMF Executive Board approved a two-year $16.4-billion standby loan for
Ukraine, the biggest loan ever taken out by the country. The IMF praised Yushchenko’s financial stabilization package. “The authorities’ program, supported by the two-year standby arrangement with the IMF, aims to restore financial and macroeconomic stability by adopting a flexible exchange rate regime with targeted intervention, a pre-emptive recapitalization of banks, and a prudent fiscal policy coupled with tighter monetary policy,” the IMF said (www.imf.org, November 5).---Source Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume 5, Issue 217.

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Ukraine arms deal to Georgia

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ITAR-TASS article concerning arms supplies to Georgia from Ukraine. The findings are from an ad hoc group  from the Rada tht was supported by the major parties in the Rada, except of course the president's party. 

Commission Discovers Facts Proving Ukrainian Arms Supplies To Georgia

TSKHINVALI, November 3 (Itar-Tass) -- Ukraine's ad hoc commission investigating arms supplies to Georgia has discovered facts in South Ossetia that confirm Ukrainian arms supplies to Georgia.

"We have received information and facts we need for our investigation. We have seen here Ukrainian hardware left by the Georgian army and received information about Ukrainian specialists who were involved in combat actions," the head of the commission, Valery Konovalyuk, said on Monday.

"In order to complete the investigation, the commission also needs information from the Georgian side, but Georgia has not provided us with the necessary information about Ukrainian arms supplies before and during the conflict," Konovalyuk said.

He said Ukraine continued to supply military hardware and ammunition to Georgia.

"The military contract with Georgia remains in force. We know of tanks, artillery systems and ammunition supplied to Georgia. The investigation commission will submit all available data to the parliament and demand a moratorium on arms supplies to Georgia," the official said.

"The document gathered by the investigation commission will be presented to law enforcement agencies and will help bring to justice all those who are responsible for illegal arms supplies used against peacekeepers and civilians," Konovalyuk said.

Over the last three years Ukraine has sold two billion U.S. dollars worth of arms, while only 840 million U.S. dollars reached the state budget, he said.

"The commission has received information from the state treasury, which clearly indicates that a great deal of the money Ukraine should have received from the sale of arms ended up outside the state budget and the Defence Ministry," he said.

However Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council denied that arms supplies to Georgia were illegal.

"Georgia was not and is not under sanctions or embargo of the U.N. Security Council, the OSCE, the European Union or other international organisations," the council said.

"Ukraine acts in accordance with its national interests, subordinating its policy both to the norms of certain ethics and international law," it said.

The council said Ukraine cooperated with Georgia "absolutely transparently" by providing all information about its arms exports to the U.N. Register and other international agencies.

"Ukraine has the most up-to-date and effective arms export control system. It was created with the methodological and technical assistance of the European Union and was adapted to its standards," the council said. 
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Election Update

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In a little over a month Ukraine is supposed to have early Rada election (14 December), but its very uncertain if this will take place. Wih no money available for the election, the election will either be postponed until January or Yushchenko may cancel his decree. DT has an interesting piece on the changing attiude toward the early election by Regions, Our Ukraine, and members of the presidential secretariat 

Bankova [street in downtown Kyiv, seat of the Presidential Secretariat] is evidently revising its initial plans. Yushchenko keeps insisting on the early election, but his insistence is losing resolve. The Premier is so far making the most of her trump cards – her influence on courts and control over the central budget. The presidential decree [on the parliament’s dissolution and the preterm election] is still in court limbo and the Central Election Commission is still waiting for money to launch the election campaign. It is already clear to everyone that the election will not take place this year. But will it do Yushchenko any good next year? His initial aim – to get rid of Tymoshenko – makes no sense now. He took this aim in September, but under the present circumstances the country will get a new government in late spring at the earliest – just a couple of weeks ahead of the presidential race.

Besides, Yushchenko is beginning to see the approaching economic danger. Those who have the privilege of contacting him are still doubtful whether he realizes the hugeness of the looming threat. He simply turned a blind eye to it until the nosedive of the national currency drew him from his idées fixes – the NATO Membership Action Plan, the Holodomor [international recognition of the Great Famine of 1932-1933], and the early election. Yushchenko must have come to realize that in the coming months the country can not remain without the parliament and government and that Tymoshenko’s premiership might eventually earn him good political fortune as all impacts of the crisis could be blamed on her.

Yushchenko’s “alter ego” Baloha [chief of the Presidential Secretariat.] is not interested in the early election, either. He sees that his political party [Yedyniy Tsentr (United Center) composed of renegade members of the pro-presidential bloc Our Ukraine and other rightist and centrist parties] stands no chance of entering the new parliament. Seeing that the OU is on the verge of political death, its “flexible” members refuse to ally with Baloha’s party in an election bloc and even demand guarantees from Yushchenko that after the election he will not force them to join the Regions Party in a new coalition.

The latest surveys show that the pro-presidential political force has meager electoral chances. Baloha does not want to be left holding the bag after his political project fails and so has to restrain his ardor.

Yushchenko and his confidants keep declaring their determination to follow through, but their serious doubts as to the expediency of their venture are already visible.

The Regions Party is no longer enthusiastic about the election race. Most of its members, who hated to ally with Tymoshenko, regarded the early election as the only reasonable alternative to such an alliance, but now this “hard choice” looks petty vis-à-vis a far more serious problem: the party’s sponsors are running out of money and are reluctant to invest in the election campaign. One of them said recently, “The robbed don’t perform charities.” They are not even ready to continue paying the regular “party tithe.” Why should they sponsor Yushchenko’s election campaign?

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