Blue &Yellow: Politics and Economics in Ukraine

There were three main factors that aggravated the political crisis: Yushchenko’s desire to get rid of Tymoshenko as soon as possible, the impossibility of their further coexistence, and the Regions Party’s desire to a) come back to the top and b) inability to do so on its own. And the underlying cause is known but too well: it is the notorious struggle for power which turns rivals into allies and friends into enemies.It is obvious that Tymoshenko was interested in the de-jure existence of the de-facto non-existent coalition, knowing that she would retain her post and continue playing her role of “Mother Patroness” of the Orange ideals, standing out very favorably against Bankova’s shameless flirting with the Dons. She knew that if her formal allies balked and refused to support her government’s initiative, she would have the moral right to seek situational support in the ranks of her formal opponents – the Regions, the Lytvyn Bloc, and the Communists. She has used thi smethod many times and had always gotten away with it. 

Ever since the incumbent coalition was formed, its transformation has been negotiated and Yanukovych has been the biggest obstacle. None of the potential allies wanted to see him in the post of Prime Minister, but Akhmetov and Kolesnikov did not dare go against the grain and Yushchenko would not give way, remembering Yanukovych’s premiership that ended in a preterm parliamentary election last September. Yushchenko and his entourage demanded guarantees that Yanukovych would not run for president in 2010 and that the Regions would support Yushchenko’s candidacy. They also demanded that the Regions help Yushchenko abolish the proportional model of parliamentary elections in favor of the single-mandate model. The negotiations proceeded in fits and starts and members of the largest faction began to grumble: firstly, Kolesnikov and Akhmetov had promised to form a grand coalition right after the preterm election but Yushchenko backed down; secondly, the OU-PSD faction failed to contribute enough votes for Tymoshenko’s dismissal and so let the Regions faction down.