Ukrainian ship captured by pirates

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New York Times has a short story on a captured Ukrainian vessel that was carrying heavy weaponry.  Somali pirates grabbed the ship before it could off load its goods. A reminder that Ukraine doesn't just supply weapons to Georgians, but to other countries around the world. 

An official in the Ukrainian Embassy in Nairobi said Ukraine was closely watching the situation but had scant information about the hijacked ship. According to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry’s Web site, there were 21 people aboard, including 17 Ukrainians, three Russians and a Latvian. The site did not describe the cargo.
The pirates have demanded $5 million according to a follow up story in the NY Times. However, there is a chance that militaryaction may be used to get back the shp and send a signal to other Somali pirates.  

On Wednesday, a Somali diplomat in Moscow announced that Somalia was inviting Russia to fight the pirates, possibly setting up a cold-war-style duel for influence like the kind that turned Somalia into a dumping ground for weapons — and problems — in the 1970s and ’80s.

Russia is known for its aggressive tactics in hostage situations, and some diplomats worry that the Russians may overreact and storm the ship.

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Nato in Ukraine's future?

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An excerpt from a BBC artticle about Ukraine and Nato membership below, below that is an article from an Interfax report on the same subject. Most of the artcile focuses on Georgia and Russia, but thier is a small snippet about Ukraine. While Georgia's future in Nato is doubtful, why is Ukraine linked with Georgia? This aticle suggests that shift in thinking by specialists may later be reflected by Nato members themselves when they decided in December whether to let Ukraine and Georgia get a MAP.  

In a potentially significant swing of expert Western opinion, a leading British think tank has urged that Nato membership should not be granted to Georgia or Ukraine.

"The policy of Nato enlargement now would be a strategic error," said Dr John Chipman, Director General of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).


The Interfax article quotes Russian Foreign Minister Lavov who warns against Ukraine joining Nato. One intersting point from this article, at no point does he suggest that Ukraine decided for itself.

West Has To Make Strategic Choice In Relation To Ukraine - Lavrov

MOSCOW. Sept 20 (Interfax) - The West will have to make a strategic choice in relation to Ukraine, bearing in mind that Ukraine's possible accession to NATO would lead to a deep rift between Moscow and Kyiv and most negatively affect security of the whole of Europe, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

"Ukraine's accession to NATO will lead to a grave crisis in Russian-Ukrainian relations. This crisis will have a most negative effect on the common European security. Thus, the West should make a choice, and this choice will be strategic," Lavrov said in an article published in the Ukrainian weekly 2000.

"Assigning the role of a buffer between Europe and Russia to Ukraine is to belittle Ukraine itself," Lavrov said. "It would be much more constructive to build relations with the surrounding world together," he said.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko's remarks in favor of Ukraine's integration into NATO are "part of a common trend of shameless exploitation of the Caucasus crisis for unscrupulous political ends, primarily with the aim of dragging Ukraine into NATO against the will of an overwhelming majority of its population and in violation of the basic democratic procedures," he said.

In particular, Lavrov pointed out that Ohryzko pushed ahead with the idea of "a NATO-centric system of European security," while "it is exactly NATO-centrism that is splitting the Euro-Atlantic community and has proven to be absolutely flawed and unpromising," Lavrov said.

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Denial: Russia not handing out passports to Ukrainians

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Since the war in Georgia "ended" last month, there has been a wave of specualtion concerning Russia's intentions for Ukraine. Russia has stated its readiness to intervene in the internal affairs of other states in order to protect its citizens. This was the excuse used to intervene in Georiga's seperatist enclaves. Now there is fear that Russia will use this ploy in Ukraine. Below is a report from Interfax-AVN concerning the mass issuance of passports in Ukraine by the Russian Embassy in Kyiv.

Russian Embassy Denies Alleged 'Massive Naturalization' Of Ukrainians

KYIV. Sept 22 (Interfax-AVN) - The Russian embassy in Ukraine has strongly denied the alleged issue of Russian passports to residents of certain Ukrainian regions.

"The Ukrainian media is claiming the alleged 'massive issue of Russian passports' to residents of certain Ukrainian regions. The media refers to simpler rules of Russian naturalization, which are in effect for participants in the state program for the promotion of voluntary resettlement. The Russian embassy affirms that such claims are totally unfounded," the embassy said on Monday.

The Russian Citizenship Law adopted in 2002 cut the list of naturalization options for individuals residing abroad, the embassy said. Thus, simpler naturalization rules are now applied exclusively to participants in the state program, who have moved to Russia.

Russian consulates in Ukraine granted naturalization to only 400 persons in 2007, the embassy said.

More than 2,500 individuals switched from Russian to Ukrainian naturalization over the same period.

"A simple comparison of these statistics mirrors the real scale of the problem and shows who can be accused of distributing passports," the embassy said.
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Coalition Building: Whats Going On?

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From BBC Ukraine,Yushchenko wants to reconstitute the Nasha Ukraina and was not negotiating with BYuT to form a new coalition. He also continues to accuse the other parties of plotting against him and Nasha Ukraina. 

As all things, words do not reflect what's going on right now in the political process. Nasha Ukraina, Bloc Lytvyn and BYuT are now trying to form a new coalition. A short piece from the Kyiv Post on the current negotiations.

The president thinks that there is an opportunity to form a new coalition, but there must be a change in obligations and behaviour.

Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko said that the conditions amounted to “arm-twisting” on Oct. 1, but said she was ready to accept them.

 Lytvyn bloc  may  function as a moderating force and intermediary between the BYuT and Nasha Ukraina who have struggled to work as a team since forming a coalition last year. It also reflects the limited options available to the parties.  The chances of a grand coalition between BYuT and Regions seems to have faded, while there is little chance that the Communists would be included in a BYuT-Nasha Ukraina coalition considering its support for Russian actions in Georiga. 

 In a related noted from DT, the U.S. Ambassador William Taylor has said that the US will work with any coalition that stays on a democratic path. He also warned the presidential administration against using force in the crisis and said that the crisis is endangers the country's national security. 

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New Coalition? Doubtful

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The Party of Regions, according to Ukrainska Pravda, is tying to organize a new grand coalition that would include all parties except Nasha Ukraine. Viktor Yanukovich said that the Regions leadership approved negotiation and that the parties have started exchanging notes. The Regions leader also mentioned that he was not conformable with a BYuT-Regions party even though he indicated that it would be possible if the two sides agreed on key principles like Nato and the status of the Russian language, but claimed that the chances are low for a BYuT-Regions coalition. 

Interesting, so why negotiate a grand coalition? Regions needs BYuT to make a coalition work, but why would BYuT want to work in a such coalition and not in a Regions-BYuT coalition? Since the Communists share the same view as Regions on Nato and the Russian language, why would BYuT agree to join a coalition with these two in it? Perhaps this is a scare tactic, make the president feel threatened by the possibility of a large coalition made up of parties that have already voted together on several key issues. Or an electoral ploy perhaps to make Regions look more conciliatory? 
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Tymsonshenko visits the Procurator

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Dzerkalo Nedeli writes that a majority of Ukrainians are still satisfied with Tymonsheko's leadership (54%) despite her conflict with the president.  Yet as reported in BBC Ukraine, she finds herself visiting the procurator once again, which she calls politically motivated. This is part of the on going investigation in to Yushchenko's poisoning, however the current political crisis is turning it into a witch hunt to  weaken a rival of Yushchenko. Tymoshenko called it a "politically ordered",  meant to keep her stuck at the Procurator for "5-6 hours" because someone in the Presidential Secretariat wanted her there. 
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Regions and BYuT

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 BBC Ukraine  reporting about the  end of the democratic coalition on Tuesday, Speaker of Parliament Arsen Yatsenyuk announced the formal end of  it, the factions in parliament have 30 days to form a new coalition.   BYuT voted with Regions and the Communists in Parliament establishing criminal liability for the illegal dismissal of parliament,  349 voted for this measure. In recent weeks the two parties plus the Communist Party of Ukraine have begun voting together on important legislation.  Perhaps Yushchenko's constant fighting with Tymoshenko softened her opposition to working with Regions. BBC also reports that Thursday was the last day that Yushchenko could veto legislation passed in the beginning of the month, which triggered this latest crisis. 
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A changing political landscape and early elections

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Zerkalo Nedeli discusses the possibility of a "Intelligent autocracy, mobile and efficient – that is what Ukraine needs now"if  Tymoshenko and Yanukovich form a coalition. Predictably, people from eastern Ukrainian cities support this move, while residents from Lviv are against a Regions-BYuT coalition.
The engine to establish a coalition with the “Regions” has been launched. The offer to Lytvyn faction to join the democratic coalition in order to revive it has been made – by the Premier. With one reservation — the Speaker will be from the Lytvyn faction, but not be Lytvyn himself. Still, Yulia Tymochenko hardly believes in the revival of the democratic coalition – Victor Yushchenko’s order to Our Ukraine faction to exit the coalition, his order to the Presidential quota ministers to ignore the sessions of the Cabinet of Ministers, and his ban to heads of regional and district administrations to come to the Cabinet of Ministers’ session on the budget leave no illusions as to the future of their relationship.
Yushchenko also repeated that he thinks that ByuT-Regions agreement is an attempt to seize power and is demanding that the laws passed on 2nd of September be annulled before he renews the coalition, which formally ends 13th of September. He described a possible  BYuT-Regions coalition as"non-European".

However, with the formal demise of the coalition Tymoshenko has instructed her deputies to prepare for early elections. Ukrainska Pravda reports that the prime minister believes that there is only a 10% of a new coalition, but not with Regions. The new coalition would have included Bloc Lytvyn and Nasha Ukraina, however she now believes that there is a 90% of early elections. 

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Crisis Continues in Kyiv

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Tymoshenko told UNIAN that Yushchenko wants the constitutional court to invalidate a lass passed on the 2nd of September unconstitutional. This law strengthened the cabinet of ministers and led to the departure of the pro-presidential party Nasha Ukrainia from the governing coalition. Tomorrow is the final day for the coalition and according Zerkalo Nedeli there is low support among all regions of Ukraine for early elections. Only 25.6% Dnipropetrovsk residents, 20.5% Kyiv residents, 24.1% Lviv residents, and 16.6% Donetsk residents support preterm parliamentary election.  

In a related story by Yulia Mostovaya and  Serhii Rakhmanin, the journalists analyze the events that led to the break up of the democratic coalition. They argue that "desire to avenge defeated political pragmatism" led to the collapse of the coalition,

There were three main factors that aggravated the political crisis: Yushchenko’s desire to get rid of Tymoshenko as soon as possible, the impossibility of their further coexistence, and the Regions Party’s desire to a) come back to the top and b) inability to do so on its own. And the underlying cause is known but too well: it is the notorious struggle for power which turns rivals into allies and friends into enemies.It is obvious that Tymoshenko was interested in the de-jure existence of the de-facto non-existent coalition, knowing that she would retain her post and continue playing her role of “Mother Patroness” of the Orange ideals, standing out very favorably against Bankova’s shameless flirting with the Dons. She knew that if her formal allies balked and refused to support her government’s initiative, she would have the moral right to seek situational support in the ranks of her formal opponents – the Regions, the Lytvyn Bloc, and the Communists. She has used thi smethod many times and had always gotten away with it. 

Ever since the incumbent coalition was formed, its transformation has been negotiated and Yanukovych has been the biggest obstacle. None of the potential allies wanted to see him in the post of Prime Minister, but Akhmetov and Kolesnikov did not dare go against the grain and Yushchenko would not give way, remembering Yanukovych’s premiership that ended in a preterm parliamentary election last September. Yushchenko and his entourage demanded guarantees that Yanukovych would not run for president in 2010 and that the Regions would support Yushchenko’s candidacy. They also demanded that the Regions help Yushchenko abolish the proportional model of parliamentary elections in favor of the single-mandate model. The negotiations proceeded in fits and starts and members of the largest faction began to grumble: firstly, Kolesnikov and Akhmetov had promised to form a grand coalition right after the preterm election but Yushchenko backed down; secondly, the OU-PSD faction failed to contribute enough votes for Tymoshenko’s dismissal and so let the Regions faction down.

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Yushchenko Poisoning Investiation Update

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President Yushchenko accused his former financial backer David Zhvania of being behind his poisoning. FT reports that,

Asked during a televised press conference if he suspected David Zhvania, godfather to one of his children, the Ukraine president said: “I think, yes. And that is putting it softly.”

Mr Zhvania, a Georgian native and current Ukrainian parliamentarian for a pro-Yushchenko party, held a senior position in the president’s hard-fought 2004 election campaign.

Mr Zhvania has denied any involvement in the case and has cast doubt on whether Mr Yushchenko was poisoned at all, suggesting the illness might have been caused by pancreatitis, herpes and facial nerve inflammation.


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Coalition Collapses: Events Outside of Kyiv

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While current focus remains on Kyiv and the ongoing struggle between Timoshenko and Yushchenko, the crisis is being felt outside the capital.  Ukrainska Pravda reports on BYuT in the Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast Rada seeking an investigation to preserve the current coalition. The BYuT faction wants to have an extraordinary session on the 10th of September in order to discuss the current crisis. This move by the local BYuT factions reflects the general attitude by party leaders who want to maintain the coalition and are against another preterm election.

In addition, Tymoshenko mentioned in a recent interview that some governors have asked the president to establish a presidential government. Timoshenko warned that this is "against the constitution" and a form of aggression. The prime minister said that if such a situation occurred that parliament would unite against it, however she believes that the president will pursue that course.
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Tymoshenko and Yushchenko trade accusations

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With Nasha Ukraina voting to leave the coalition, BYuT leader Yulia Tymoshenko urged President Yushchenko to renew the coalition even as she hurled accusations against the President in an FT article.  Below are excerpts from the interview, including a hard to believe claim that Tymoshenko  had been not been considering a run for the presidency until recent events changed her mind.  The prime minister and the president have never managed to maintain harmonious relations for long. The best way to deal with this by Tymoshenko  is to run for president and replace her long time rival with.... Tymoshenko . 

She accused Mr Yushchenko of tarnishing her image in an attempt to score points with voters ahead of next year’s presidential election.Dismissing as “comical” allegations from the president that she had plotted with the Kremlin, she insisted she had pushed to cut Russia’s grasp over Ukraine’s energy sector. She also claimed that Mr Yushchenko had protected “Russian interests” in a strategic Black Sea hydrocarbon exploration project. By cancelling the venture, “where Russian interests were camouflaged by Houston-based Vanco Energy . . . I returned Ukraine’s strategic Black Sea gas reserves”.
Asked if she would run for president next year, the prime minister said: “Before this was willing to support a single candidate. After the events of last week I am seriously considering it.
However, the prime minister has not given up on renewing the coalition. BBC Ukraine service reported that she is against early elections and believes that the best decision for the country is to renew the coalition, which collapsed when Nasha Ukraina voted to leave it.  Tymoshenko  also rejected accusations by the president that she her government had been ineffective and working against national interests. In a related note, Volodymyr Lytvyn, leader of the eponymous  party, remarked that BYuT and Party of Regions have a similar ideology, but believed that coalition between the two biggest parties is unlikely since it would quickly lead to in-fighting. However, as Yushchenko showed when he invited the PR to form a coalition in 2006,political  circumstances could lead to a PR-BYuT coalition. 

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Yuschenko and the Rada

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After seeing his party, Nasha Ukraine, lose a vote to support Georgia (in which every other party voted against the party).From BBC Ukraine, Yushchenko is threatening to dissolve the Rada. However,  his party may not muster enough votes in the next election. His new party United Center has no base of support. Thus, his desperate plea to threaten the Rada with elections in which the other parties would probably benefit more than his parties makes Yushchenko threat seem hollow. 

While the next presidential elections are not until 2010, Ukrainska Pravda reportsthat Yushchenko has announced is candidacy and claimed he will win. He also supports his party's decision to leave the coalition, yet as the de facto head of his party the decision would not have been made without his approval. Why his Yuschenko making these moves? Perhaps it was the scene of BYuT, Communists, Bloc Lytvyn, and Regions voting together that triggered this latest blow up (from BBC Ukraine). The parties voted to strengthen the government, but Radio Free Liberty reports that 

"This law establishes a dictatorship of the prime minister. It puts the head of the government above the constitution," Yushchenko said.

"Presidential decrees and decisions of the National Security and Defense Council are ignored completely. The changes to the law on the Constitutional Court make it impossible to appeal an unconstitutional ruling of the court. The government is outside any control, and the basic balance of government is ruined."

A similar law expanding the powers of the cabinet of ministers was already passed by the BYuT and the Party of Regions in December 2006 and reaffirmed, following a presidential veto, in January 2007. So, is this just another example of Ukrainian deja vu? 
The president may fear that the parties united against him may go further if left unprovoked and make more constitutional changes that would make the prime minister the dominant political actor in the government. Euarsia Daliy Monitor (Volume 5, Issue 171)  listed writes that the changes included

 simplifying the impeachment procedure, forbidding the president from suspending cabinet resolutions by referring them to the Constitutional Court, and depriving the president of the rights to choose the prosecutor-general, the security service chief, and the regional governors

EDM also cites ByuT and PRs' recent behavior, which suggested the parties were moving close together,
 Parliament has already managed to overrun several of Yushchenko’s most recent vetoes...PRU and BYT set up an ostensibly pro-Russian ad-hoc investigative commission to probe arms supplies to Georgia.
 Yushchenko said later that NUNS would return to the coalition with BYT on two conditions: if BYT helps him veto the “anti-constitutional” laws passed on September 2-4, and if it backs his position on Georgia, including his condemnation of Russia’s use of the Sevastopol-based Black Sea Fleet in actions against Georgia.

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Nasha Ukraina leaves Coalition

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Something from BBC Ukraine, yesterday Raisa gets kicked out of the party of regions, today Nasha Ukraina leaves the coalition. This move takes place soon after Nasha Ukraina failed to get a decision passed in the Rada condemning Russian agression in Georgia,while seeng BYuT vote for legislation weakening the presidency. In the 3rd September FT on the coalition's collapse, 

Addressing the nation, President Yushchenko accused Ms Tymoshenko’s bloc of plotting an ”anti-constitutional coup” by voting in tandem with communists and the Moscow-leaning Regions party in favour of legislation to cut the president’s authority. 
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Speculation has abounded that either Tymoshenko’s or Yushchenko’s party could join forces with the Regions party of former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich. All three are almost certain to run in the presidential election in about 16 months, and analysts have seen the arguments between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko as political manoeuvring ahead of the poll.

While it doesn't become official until after 10 ten days, its beginning to look like there will be preterm elections (United Center will try to replace Nasha Ukraina has the presidential party of power) but БЮТ may seek a new coalition partner.  Yushchenko may wait on preterm elctions because his new party, United Center, is still a shell party with no identity of its own. Considering Arsen Yatsenuik just got two new vice-speakers, one of which served in the Regions government as justice minister(Oleksandr Lavrinobicha), perhaps the other parties may  hold off on the elections.  However, Regions and БЮТ  will beenfit from next elections considering Nasha Ukraina is weaker now that Yushchenko has decided to create a new party of power.  Why do I say finally? Because the coalition broke down months ago and just recentlyYushchenko's faction accused Tymoshenko  of betraying the national interest

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