Neighbors: Medvedev talks to Ukraine

President Dmitry Medvedev has decided to that its time for Russia to start using its "soft power" by criticizing President Yushchenko through a video blog and open letter. The Russian president has sharp words for a president that probably won't even break 10% in the next presidential election. A Reuters piece as a curious sentence in its piece on the open letter to Yushchenko from Medvedev.

In an open letter to Ukraine's pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko, Medvedev said he would postpone sending a new ambassador to Kiev, and accused Yushchenko of putting gas supplies to Europe at risk by disrupting ties with Moscow.
Ukraine, a former Soviet republic whose population is divided between pro-Western and Russia-leaning camps, elects a new president in January to succeed Yushchenko, swept to power in the 2004 Orange Revolution.
Medvdev accusing Yushchenko of jeopardizing gas supplies isn't news, but I did find it interesting that the Reuters story explicitly acknowledges that Yushchenko will be replaced. No suggestion that he will win a second term.

But, why attack a president whose poll numbers are low and not go after Tymoshenko? Perhaps because the president represents a better symbolic villain for Russia rather than Tymoshenko. His a figure still identified with the popular protests in 2004 even if his term in office has been disappointing. However, unlike Putin in 2004 there is no explicit support for a particular candidate, but there is a lot of crypto-messaging going in the letter. As Lytvyn points out, Medvedev's statements will be a boon to certain candidates.This also won't be the last thing that Russia does in order to influence the Ukrainian presidential election.

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