Blue &Yellow: Politics and Economics in Ukraine

With no grand coalition, Tymoshenko and Yanukovich are now playing a game of political brinkmanship in the Rada. The ongoing blocking of the Rada prevents any business from being conducted. Yanukovich ostensibly wants an increase in minimum wage and pension. This issue is very popular in an election year. While new Rada elections have not been called, Yanukovich can look forward to the presidential election. However, the possibility of a early elections still exists. As EDM recently reported (V.6, issue 130) Regions and Yushchenko have an interests in forcing new elections, but there is a legal deadline.

There is little time remaining for Yushchenko to
consider these options. According to the constitution, the
president may not dissolve parliament within six months of his term
expiring. Parliamentary Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn said that
Yushchenko can dissolve parliament on July 24 at the latest, as his
term should expire on January 23, 2010 (www.proua.com, July 6). If
Lytvyn is correct and the PRO's goal was to prompt Yushchenko to
dissolve parliament, then they left it too late to obstruct its
functioning. One indisputable legal option for the president to
dissolve the legislature is in the event that it proves unable to
work for one month, but the blockade of the rostrum by the PRU
started on June 26, and there will be less than 30 days until July
24.

The PRU is so fixed on snap elections because
its popularity has probably peaked, while that of the BYT is set to
slump as it steers the government during a period of deep economic
crisis. According to the latest opinion poll by the Kyiv
International Institute of Sociology, the PRU would secure 37
percent of the vote had the elections been held in June, while the
BYT would muster only 21 percent, followed by the party of former
speaker Arseny Yatsenyuk with 15 percent. Moreover, the poll showed
that Yatsenyuk's party might defeat Tymoshenko's in her stronghold
of West Ukraine (Ukrainska Pravda, July 2).

The Rada is expected to open tomorrow, according to Ukrainska Pravda. The article quotes vice-speaker of the Rada Mikola Tomenko who predicts that the Rada will hold its meeting at 1600. Another BYuT deputy says that Regions has promised not to block the Rada tribunal tomorrow. It appears that at least part of Regions demands will be met, BYuT will give a second reading to the wage and pension increase bill. Will this end the stalemate? No, Regions and Yushchenko still have its legal deadline on July 24.