No Nato, No Suprise

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Interfax quoted Gryshchenko as saying that NATO membership did not have the support of the majority of the population and had a "destructive effect" on state policy.
But his words indicated that Ukraine, whose Crimean peninsula is home to Russia's Black Sea fleet on an extended lease until 2042, would continue to take part in military and civil emergency programs with NATO countries.
President Yanukovych and his party never supported Nato membership so a decision to drop its bid for membership wasn't unexpected. While its true that Nato membership didn't have broad popular support, its also cover for dropping their bid.  To be fair, Ukraine hadn't even been offered a Membership Action Plan, instead this happened in Talinn. To be fair again, Russia opposition probably was one reason that a MAP wasn't given to Ukraine. 

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Assorted links

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  • Here's the president on local elections. [Ukrainska Pravda]
  • On the journalist held in Transdniester. [RFE/RL]
  • Four possible scenarios for Ukraine by Andrew Wilson. [NY Times]
  • Akhemetov raises the possibility of uniting the championships of Ukraine and Russia.[BBC Ukraine]
  • A reading campaign in Russia. [via Literary Saloon]
  • суботник nostalgia, for some. [BBC Ukraine]

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California and Ukraine in the top ten

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After reading this from Marginal Revolution, I then went to the CMA website showing credit default swaps on sovereign debt risk. This is data from Tuesday 25th May 2010, the state of California is at number ten and Ukraine is at number five for riskiest sovereign debt. Ukraine is sandwiched between Pakistan (at number 4) and Iraq (at number six). Greece isn't too far from Ukraine on this list. I wish I had gone to CMA's site after the gas-base deal or after the election in order to compare today's data. I suppose the weak economy is one reason why Ukraine remains high on this list, but it hasn't experienced political violence on the scale of Pakistan or Iraq or even Greece.  Perhaps its fear that Ukraine will revive some bad practices

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Speculation on Moldova

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“Transdniestria will remain independent and not become part of Ukraine,” she said. Suggestions to the contrary are “provocations” by Yuliya Timoshenko in order to cast doubt on “the political and diplomatic successes of Viktor Yanukovich in order to destabilize the situation in the country.”
But Filin concludes, her words are less than fully convincing, all the more because the Verkhovna Rada has already discussed the procedure that would have to be followed for places like Transdniestria to join Ukraine. Indeed, he says, the Ukrainian deputies have come up with a slogan: ‘Transdniestria – the First Stage of a New Pereyaslavska Rada’ – neither more nor less!”
Paul Globe's post about a possible deal by Ukraine and Russia on Transdniestraia. A bizarre idea considering the kind of signal it would send to the United States and Western Europe: a re-consolidation of territories by Russia. Perhaps it was discussed, Yanukovych seems to be willing to listen to Russia's ideas.
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Ukraine in internet chatter map

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Demographics of "Ukraine" on May 23, 2010 (from Lexicalist.com).


The Lexicalist map shows which states are using "Ukraine" on the Internet and twitter . Chris Blattman had a post on this site, which finds where keywords are being brought up in talk. Lighter blue color means the word is used more in those states. I find the results for "Ukraine" dubious since North Dakota is the top state, why North Dakota? 


Demographics of "Moscow" on May 24, 2010 (from Lexicalist.com).


For Moscow, this comes out. Dubious, very dubious result. I doubt that people in North Dakota and Idaho use Moscow more frequently in Internet chatter than people in New York. 

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Tymoshenko interview in The Times

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Now Yuliya Tymoshenko has given warning that the country could break up, as its new President embraces the Kremlin once more.

 Disintegration  isn't the real threat, its a return  to a quasi-authoritarian rent seeking state (Kuchma II or Kuchma-lite).  The interview isn't long, election and post-election activities are not covered.The  interview includes a dire warning by Tymoshenko on the consequences of Yanukovych's actions (renewed political persecutions). 


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Legal action on, Legal action off

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And as quickly as it started the regime has canceled the summons for Tymoshenko. This summons related to a  2004 bribery case, which was reopened. Tymoshenko still faces an audit on budget expenditures taken during her time in office.  However, two NUNS deputies face legal action for the blow up in the Rada on 27 April. 

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Assorted links

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  • “Soviet archives again are returning to their customary status – closed to outsiders'. Paul Globe looks at the decision to close Soviet archives in Ukraine. [Window on Eurasia]
  • '' Buried down near the bottom of the piece, there is some interesting info on Igor Sechin's aims to get into the country's hydroelectric generation projects (though Ukrainians claim that this "help" is not needed)''. [Robert Amsterdam]
  • "It was an impromptu," he said. "And it does not at all mean that Ukraine will decide it this way." President Yankovych downplaying Putin's suggestion that Naftogaz and Gazprom merge.[Itar-Tass]
  • An interesting non-political story about a Nigerian student in Ukraine who won a poetry reading contest in Donetsk. [RFE/RL]
  • Yanukovych interview by the BBC where the president backtracks a bit from the Naftogaz and Gazprom merger speculation. [BBC Ukraine]

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Assorted links

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  • “Soviet archives again are returning to their customary status – closed to outsiders'. Paul Globe looks at the decision to close Soviet archives in Ukraine. [Window on Eurasia]
  • '' Buried down near the bottom of the piece, there is some interesting info on Igor Sechin's aims to get into the country's hydroelectric generation projects (though Ukrainians claim that this "help" is not needed)''. [Robert Amsterdam]
  • "It was an impromptu," he said. "And it does not at all mean that Ukraine will decide it this way." President Yankovych downplaying Putin's suggestion that Naftogaz and Gazprom merge.[Itar-Tass]
  • An interesting non-political story about a Nigerian student in Ukraine who won a poetry reading contest in Donetsk. [RFE/RL]
  • Yanukovych interview by the BBC where the president backtracks a bit from the Naftogaz and Gazprom merger speculation. [BBC Ukraine]

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Legal action as a political tool

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As reported, the Ukrainian government hired Washington DC based Trout Cacheris PLLS to evaluate the financial and economic activity of the previous government from 2008 through the first quarter of 2010.
Trout Cacheris, PLLC, will lead a team of professional legal and consulting firms that will include Kroll, Inc. and Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, LLP

Yes, this seems like an attempt by the new government to appear impartial in a politically motivated investigation into the previous government's action. Tymoshenko is also being investigated for a 2004 bribery case that has just been reopened.  While Tymoshenko may have broken the law, I doubt that the move against her is purely legally motivated.   Alena Ledeneva writes in How Russia Really Works that “the pervasiveness of rule violations, punishment is bound to occur selectively on the basis of criteria developed outside the legal domain” (pg. 13). Legal action, in other words, can be a political tool.   The timing of the investigation, after a fiasco in the Rada, suggests that the new regime wants to weaken a major opponent of the regime. Last time I checked former President Kuchma had not been arrested for anything during his time as president, yet Tymoshenko finds herself a subject of multiple criminal investigations. 


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RFE/RL interviews Yushchenko

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RFE/RL: How would you describe the current form of government?
Yushchenko: Right now it is a totalitarian model, where one person holds three institutions in his hand: the parliamentary majority, the government, and the presidential office.
RFE/RL: If Yulia Tymoshenko was president now, do you think she would have made the same statement that Yanukovych made on the Holodomor in PACE? Would she have repealed your decrees regarding Bandera and Shukhevych? Would she have signed the Black Sea Fleet pact with Russia?
Yushchenko: If we're talking about ideology, I'm certain that Tymoshenko and Yanukovych share the same ideology. Yanukovych did not reverse the gas deal that was signed by Tymoshenko, because it suits both of them. Yanukovych and Tymoshenko are the best project Moscow has done in the past 100 years.
From  Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty interview with former President Yushchenko. His sticking to his campaign message that Tymoshenko and Yanukovych are politically the same. No surprise after reading the interview why the Orange team failed to get along.

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A look at L'viv

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The effort expended in the name wars would be better spent on smartening up what was once a wonderfully grand provincial metropolis. Along with the ghosts of murdered Jews and deported Poles, echoes of past glories are unmissable, particularly in the fine frontages of the city centre. Not only there: your correspondent once visited the city’s museum of sewerage to inspect the magnificent wrought-iron pipes of long ago. 
The Economist has the rest here. Its a brief look at L'viv, but also the EU's relationship with Ukraine. Michael Palin said something similar in his brief visit to the city in his documentary Michael Palin's New Europe. He spends more time in Kyiv and that part feels dated. He was with Tymoshenko's daughter and son-in-law during (I think) the 2006 post-election protests. 
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