Blue &Yellow: Politics and Economics in Ukraine

• Russian Ambassador arrives just in time for the second round. [For-UA]
  
• The two candidates campaigning in Ukraine. [Ukrainiana]
  
• The Economist obit on Roman Kupchinsky. [The Economist]
  
• Taras Kuzio writes on one anti-Tymoshenko blogger. [Taras Kuzio]
  
• The International gas transportation consortium, Yanukovych favors it, but Tymoshenko does not. [Interfax-UA]
  

“Having analyzed the programs of all presidential candidates in the first round, having studied all the suggested reforms and their consequences, I want to officially offer the post of prime minister to Serhiy Tihipko after my victory in the presidential election. His strategic program of economic stabilization and reform, as well as my economic program, mostly coincide,” she said.

Tymoshenko offers him the premiership, but that wasn't a surprise. He received a the third largest share in the first round making him the de facto kingmaker in the second round. He claims that he will support no one in the second round, but is willing to accept the premiership from both candidates. How nice of him to accept the reward without making a commitment, by appearing non-committal he can avoid angering either side. There is still time for him to change his stance and he could send out signals over which candidate he supports without explicitly declaring his support for someone. At this point, I assume its Yanukovych, his former boss, rather Tymoshenko. 

"In fact it was a provocative attempt... to destabilize the situation in the country... The goal of this action was to destabilize the work of the Interior Ministry and open the way for the falsification of the election," Turchynov said at a press conference in Kyiv on Thursday after a special sitting of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.

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  "If the election has managed to generate some suspense among a disillusioned and economically depressed public, it's largely because of the ambitious Tymoshenko. She's consistently polling behind her main rival, Viktor Yanukovich, but many analysts predict that the pair will compete in a runoff next month. Even if she surprises observers by losing outright in the first round, she will stay in the thick of a looming tug of war for control of parliament and the Cabinet." [LA Times]
  


• "The so-called Orange Revolution swept pro-Western leaders to power and dealt a harsh blow to Moscow's attempts to exert influence on the former Soviet republic.Yanukovich sat down at his Party of Regions headquarters for an interview with The Times, conducted in Russian. "[LA Times]
• "останній день Помаранчевої влади" --So says Regions. [BBC Ukraine]
• Paid supporters for Yanukovych. [Ukrainiana]
• "Though Sen. John McCain was recently in Georgia to receive an award for his outspoken support both during and after the 2008 Russian invasion, his reputation in Ukraine might be a bit tarnished among the pro-democracy liberals once Viktor Yanukovych takes over with a victory in the polls."[RA]
• Ukraine's score on the index of economic freedom--162. [BBC Ukraine, Heritage]

• The president declares that he will return, but  look what happened to Kuchma and Kravchuk. [BBC Ukraine]
• Yushchenko makes Bandera Hero of Ukraine. [Zik]

Now that the official count is almost over, Tymoshenko's side realizes that there is a bigger gap between Yanukovych and her. While the national exit poll had a smaller gap ICTV, Iinter-SOCIS, and Shuster exit polls had the two candidates further apart and closer to the official result.  Domestic and international observers claim there was no massive voter irregularities , but that doesn't mean that the second round won't have more, visible, election irregularities And now the horse trading begins, with Tymoshenko offering Tihipko the prime minister position plus half the cabinet. Below is the election chart from Ukrainska Pravda. 

"She's a one-woman show. But civil society won't let that happen," says Oleh Rybachuk, a former chief of staff to Yushchenko and deputy prime minister in Tymoshenko's government. Ukrainians may want a strong leader, he says, but they won't allow a politician to curtail their freedoms. "Ukraine is not Russia," he adds.

According to Freedom House, Ukraine was rated partly free in 2004.  In 2005 Ukraine  moved up to the  free column with a score of  3.5 and in 2009 Ukraine had a score of 2.5.

According to BBC Ukraine, the national exit poll has Yanukovych (31.5%) and Tymoshenko (27.25)  in the second round of the presidential election.  The prime minister trailed in earlier survey polls [1,2], but closed the gap with the Regions leader.These results were expected, the real drama will come in the run up to the second round as each side seeks public support from the candidates who didn't make the cut.  Tigipko had a strong finish with 13.5% and Yatsenuik received 7.8%. Inevitably, they'll play a kingmaker role in the second round. Surprisingly, Yushchenko received  6% of the vote. Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, in other polls, are also the front runners, but Yanukovych has a higher percentage of the vote. 

• Political billboards for this election, I prefer the tents because of the free stuff. [Ukrainiana]
  
• I should probably re-read Samuel P. Huntington, Motyl makes the case for a strong government post-Yushchenko. [Moscow Times]
  
• An observation on Tymoshenko,  from Robert Amsterdam's blog, on her stance on Russia. [RA]
  
• The president's own ex-defense minister is unwilling to support him. [Interfax-UA]
• Tymoshenko already rounding up key endorsements for the second round of the presidential election. [Zik]
• Taras Kuzio looks at the role of Russia in this election. [Taras Kuzio]

But so bitter is the disappointment in the orange team, so strong the craving for stability which (at least visually) he represents and so deep the suspicion, rational or otherwise, of Ms Tymoshenko that even in western Ukraine some voters may back Mr Yanukovich in the second round. This is partly Mr Yushchenko’s work—in many ways, he has done more for Mr Yanukovich’s campaign than Mr Yanukovich himself. Indeed, destroying Ms Tymoshenko, his erstwhile orange colleague, seems now to be Mr Yushchenko’s only goal. Whereas most of Mr Yushchenko’s former allies have agreed to back Ms Tymoshenko, he is implicitly backing Mr Yanukovich. He spent much of his final press conference on January 12th attacking Ms Tymoshenko, earning him fulsome praise from Mr Yanukovich’s camp. As the incumbent prime minister, Ms Tymoshenko’s rating has also been dented by Ukraine’s severe economic crisis.

From The Economist, offering a succinct analysis of the election on Sunday. As others have observed,  Yushchenko blew up his political career and now his trying to blow up Tymoshenko's chances of winning the presidential election.  While 55% of Ukrainians view Yanukovych negatively, how many will be willing to vote for Tymoshenko in the second round  in face of bad PR?  

Yushchenko yesterday said the election would be “a national referendum about Ukraine’s European future.” Speaking to reporters in Kiev, he said his policies were “simple and clear: Let’s go home, to Europe.”

No, its not a referendum on Europe. Its a vote to remove an unpopular president with the least worse candidate available. 

I don't think that the president is being delusional when he claims that he has a chance in the presidential election. Its a calculated move to keep himself relevant in an election where polls indicate he is completely irrelevant. 

Update: Lets not forget that home voting has yet to be banned. 

Well, here's two stories on voter fraud in Ukraine. One comes from Reuters, which notes that voters have been offering their votes via Internet ads. 
However, this post from  Ukrainiana shows how one party, BYuT, has been soliciting votes for next week.The old fashioned way, offering foodstuff to voters.  The post mentions Chernovetsky doing this in his campaign in 2008. While I got the fun bag, it only had a  fridge magnet, pen, and notepad. 

From the a BBC article on the election calendar, which I translated and posted here. Below are the activities going on this month and next month. While the election is in a week, the results are not announced until the 27 January. If the polls hold, then there will a second round 7  February. With the more hectic/chaotic part of the campaigning  probably occurring during this period. If a second round is scheduled, then a new president wouldn't be in office until March. 

• Tymoshenko being a bit over top in her Xmas greeting. [Ukrainiana]
  
• While hoping for the best, Yanukovych plans for the worse. He plans to bring in "supporters" from outside Kyiv. [Zik]
  
• An article about providing government benefits for UPA vets, the author makes it seem like its a new issue, but its not. [Washington Post]
  
• Pragmatic foreign policy for Yanukovych means subordination to Moscow. [For-Ua]

"She was told she is the reincarnation of Eva Perón," says Dmitry Vydrin, who was Tymoshenko's close adviser for nearly a decade. "And she believes it. She admits it in closed circles. She copies her consciously and subconsciously."

The Yushchenko and Yanukovych campaigns –not surprisingly– alleged that the document was a forgery (Ukrayinska Pravda, December 28). At the same time, its authenticity is proven by two steps undertaken by the presidential secretariat. Firstly, the presidential secretariat’s pressure on television channels not to discuss the document, which led to Kozachok complaining about the return of censorship to Ukrainian media. “It is obvious that ignoring (the document) has taken place on instructions from ‘above,’ and the system has worked to block the appearance in the mass media of information unpleasant for senior officials” (Ukrayinska Pravda, December 29).

• Reuters provides a factbox on Ukraine. [Reuters]
• Ihor Sevcenko passes away. [NY Times]
• Home voting never a good idea in Ukraine. [Zik]
• Yanukovych re-considers democracy, for now. [For-UA]