Blue &Yellow: Politics and Economics in Ukraine

"I'm sending to parliament amendments to the budget for 2009 that determine the sources [of financing the rise in social standards this year]. I'm also asking the parliament to return the budget for 2010 for revision," he said.

Yuschenko said that in order to increase social standards in 2009, the government has to find around UAH 1 billion to pay pensions and UAH 300-350 million to pay wages.

President Yushchenko signed the law on social standards into law, even though the IMF was not in favor of the law. And now we wait to see if the IMF actually does something in response to Ukraine's defiance or just gives the next tranche with a stern warning. 

Tymoshenko has moved swiftly to quarantine regions in Ukraine and close down schools in order to prevent the spread of swine flu. The decision by the Tymoshenko government to declare a state of emergency hasn't been without controversy, coming soon after the start of the presidential election. But cases of swine flu have been confirmed by the Health Ministry. So far there have been 14 cases of swine flu (with at least 30 deaths that could be swine flu), meanwhile the WHO is sending a team to Ukraine and the state will spend UAH 500 million to combat the  epidemic. 

1. Its a Timeline, but the lede asks the question I'm asking as well. Is Artek black PR? [Kyiv Post]
   
2. The Economist takes a crack at the concept of ethnic minorities. [The Economist]
3. Political stunt in Ukraine involving dolls. [RFE]
4. Swine flue shuts down schools in Ukraine. [ABS-CBN]
5. Ukraine's credit rating lowered by S&P.[Bloomberg]

 Instead of railing Orange-style against juntas and authoritarianism, Yatsenyuk switched to declaring war on corruption, using hard-man talk of filling the jails and cutting off hands. He also showed himself happy to speak Russian in public, supported the Russian stance over gas transport, and praised Putin as “having saved his country.” “Putin-lite” is also reminiscent of Dmitry Medvedev, who enjoys a high level of approval in Ukraine, has declared war on corruption, is young and has a background in law, like Yatsenyuk.

“The mission is now awaiting endorsement of the agreed policy package, including assurances that the wage and pension law approved by Ukraine’s parliament, which is at odds with the objectives of the authorities’ program, will be vetoed,” the IMF said in an e-mailed statement today.

“The mission found that the economic and financial situation in Ukraine is stabilizing as a result of policies under this program,” the IMF said today. “Preserving these gains will require policy discipline and corrective actions in some areas.”

An excerpt from a Bloomberg article on the next IMF loan installment, with the international organization firmly against the wage and pension bill. The bill has been supported by the Party of Regions, who have blocked other business in the Rada. The IMF position may be providing political cover for Tymsohenko, but the bill itself is a transparent attempt by Regions to curry favor with voters. 

American politicians are pushing through free speech laws to protect US citizens from libel rulings in British courts that have been accused of stifling criticism of oligarchs and dictators. The development follows claims that foreigners flock to the UK to begin hugely expensive defamation cases even though they have little to do with this country.

London has long been regarded as a claimant-friendly place for libel actions because defendants are deemed “guilty” until they have proved their innocence, the opposite of the usual burden of proof in criminal cases. Damages are also typically higher in the UK and the costs so expensive that defendants often feel compelled to settle out of court, even though they may be in the right.

From a Sunday Times piece on  what the author, Robert Watts, calls "libel tourism", the practice of going to Britain to sue individuals or organizations that may not even be based in Britain. Here is the Kyiv Post article about a  lawsuit that it was involved in. So Ukraine may have sex tourism, but now we know that Britain has libel tourism. 

In recent weeks, pro-Kremlin newspapers have been speculating that Crimea might soon be "reunited" with mother Russia, solving the fleet issue. The best-selling Komsomolskaya Pravda even printed a map showing Europe in 2015. The Russian Federation had swallowed Crimea, together with eastern and central Ukraine. Ukraine still existed, but it was a small chunk of territory around the western town of Lviv.

I've already posted on Crimea, but I also know that as the election nears the peninsula may get additional write ups on its links to Russia and possible Russian aggression.The Observer article, where this excerpt comes from, shows one way the Kremlin is trying to create an atmosphere of fear. 

1. Kuchma has some foreign policy advice. [ForUA]
2. Taras Kuzio on the next presidential election. [Taras Kuzio]
3. The Artek case is turning into a political liability for BYuT right as the election officially kicks off, hmm. [Kyiv Post,Interfax-Ukraine]
4. Georgian official talks about Russia, Ukraine, and destabilization. [Window on Eurasia]

Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko has issued a decree on ensuring the constitutional electoral rights of citizens, as well as the transparency and openness of the electoral process during the next election of the head of state on January 17, 2010.

The president of Ukraine preparing for the upcoming presidential election, which is three months away. BBC Ukraine has an article enumerating the steps that will taken as part of the election process. Here it is in English, any mistakes below  are mine since the article is in Ukrainian. 
The BBC article notes that the inauguration date is not fixed, after the results are presented there are 30 days for the president-elect to assume power. Technically speaking, we may not know who will be the next president until late February. Of course there could be lawsuits,  something comes up with Russia or some other incident occurs that derails the election calendar. 

Firstly, that Tymoshenko is now building on her hard-core base of support which will steadily grow during the three month election campaign. This is in contrast to Yatseniuk’s soft-core base of support which is leading to the opposite tendency of a decline in his support. Much of his soft-core support came not from support for Yatseniuk but from disillusionment with establishment politicians.

Secondly, Yatseniuk can no longer believe that his third place position in round one is impregnable. Anatoliy Grytsenko and Serhiy Tyhipko are likely to mount strong challenges to Yatseniuk for the third and fourth place places in round one of the elections while Viktor Yushchenko will take votes from Yatseniuk in Galicia.

1. SBU says no to Don Cossak leader. [RFE]
   
2. I'm not sure if Taraz Kuzio is referring to commentators on his blog (you'll see), but here's his post on Russian and Ukrainian nationlism. [Taras Kuzio]
   
3. Soviet propaganda cum modern political campaigning in Ukraine, Tymoshenko edition. [Ukrainiana]
   
4. Poroshenko, the new foreign minister,  profiled by  Roman Kupchinsky. [Jamestown Blog]

What's the confirmation bias? When you select information that confirms a bias you have. Not an elegant explanation, but you've got the link to learn more.  A bias I've seen in recent reports on Ukraine  is Crimea as the Next Georgia (or more exactly South Ossetia). 

 It seems that any recent article on Crimea has a checklist of issues: Black Sea Fleet, the history of Crimea (the 1954 handover is mandatory), Georgian War and the ethnic make up of the region. The article then discusses provocative moves by Russia and Ukraine's counter moves, if any. Washington Post's recent article on Ukraine and the Crimea follows this familiar pattern (here, here, here,here). 

CHISINAU -- New Moldovan Prime Minister Vlad Filat has told RFE/RL's Moldovan Service that Chisinau might seek "common action" with Kyiv in its efforts to join the European Union.

Moldova and Ukraine are among six former Soviet republics that have been promised closer ties with the 27-member bloc -- including broader EU market access and visa-free travel -- in exchange for economic and democratic reforms in an EU program called the Eastern Partnership. 

Regions has managed to keep the Rada blocked. Now the legislation its championed is moving forward in the Rada. Ukrainska Pravda's article on this legislation (lede, Regions wants to "knock down" Tymoshenko according to OU-PSD) has this from Mikola Matrinenko, the Rada deputy in the article. 

 Тому що логіка Віктора Андрійовича – чим гірше для уряду, тим краще", - вважає депутат

Rough translation: Yushchenko's logic, the worse for the Government, the better. Its his observation, yet succinctly describes the relationship between the prime minister and the president. 

1. Regions shenanigans at the Shuster show upstages Tymoshenko. [Taras Kuzio]
2. Naftogaz debt problems continue, with a credit downgrade. [FT, Kyiv Post]
3. Poland to issue samurai bonds. [FT Alphaville]
4. More on the NBU handling of the bank rescue.[Kyiv Post]

The greatest evil is that voters may be convinced that all candidates are the same. The elections may well go under this slogan. Ukrainians have already lost interest and any hope for positive changes. Therefore, if the turnout is too low on The Day of elections, this may produce tragic results.”

Den survey of three experts on the possibility that "democratic forces" will unify prior to the presidential election. None of them give a clear answer to the question, but I think the wrong question was asked. Granted, Den asked several related questions in the piece, a better question: Will the public rally around a "democratic" candidate, enough to win the election? Or will the scenario sketched above occur.

Yushchenko has nominated his long time financial backer Petro Poroshenko to the post of Foreign Minister, vacant since March. It will be interesting to see if the Rada even votes on his nomination. He would leave his current post as head of the NBU council during an investigation into NBU's recapitalization program.