Assorted Links

0 comments

  1. Musings on the menu in eastern Europe. [The Economist]
  2. Ukrainian Basketball League player Patrick Beverley drafted by Lakers traded to Heat. [Chicago Tribune, UBL wiki entry]
  3. New Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov. [Kyiv Post]
  4. A history of constitutional instability in Ukraine? [RFE]
Read On

Presidential Election: Scheduled for 17 Jan. 2010

0 comments

The Rada voted to set the next presidential election for 17 January 2010, with 399 voting for this decision. As previously posted, a new date for the election had be rescheduled when the Constitutional Court ruled the October date unconstitutional. The decision is no surprise considering that the major factions accepted the idea of rescheduling the election for January, BYuT's consent to hold it at the date assured the outcome.

Read On

Gas: Doubts still remain

0 comments

As previously posted, Ukraine is struggling to pay its gas bill. This problem is related to the agreement made back in January. The deal that ended the January crisis has three problems: the upfront payment, means for calculating the gas price, and the agreed price. Well two of the three are central to Ukraine's current woes with Gazprom. The country struggles monthly to pay for gas. The prime minister of Ukraine, Yulia Tymosheno, said as much recently.

Now, there is renewed speculation on whether Ukraine can pay for June gas. There are discussions currently underway on lending money to Ukraine to pay for gas. Tymoshenko says that Ukraine will pay its bill next month. The prime minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, thinks there is a chance that gas will be cut again in July (Reuters). He also voiced his frustration over the ongoing drama between Russia and Ukraine.

Fico echoed Barroso statements that it was not the EU's responsibility to help Ukraine pay for Russian gas imports.

"Sometimes, I have a feeling the entire Russia-Ukraine trade dispute is primarily about to make someone else pay," Fico said. "But it is not our duty to step into this."

Slovakia, which gets virtually all of its gas from Russia, is proceeding with plans to secure diversified routes for gas deliveries to avoid a repeat of the crisis, Fico said.

Read On

Diplomacy: Russia recalls Chernomyrdin

0 comments

With the presidential election season approaching, Russia is preparing itself by picking a new ambassador who will be the point man for Russia. While the new one hasn't been announced yet, there is conjecture over what role the new ambassador will play in Russia-Ukraine relations.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta's recent article (Russia's Replacement of Chernomyrdin Signals Shift in Policy Toward Ukraine, June 15, 2009) notes the importance attached to Chernomyrdin 's replacement.


The mission of the new ambassador is considerably larger in scope, and more complicated: he will be called upon to become the personification of the new Russian policy with respect to Ukraine.
***

The time has now come when the rotation cannot be put off any longer -- Ukrainian political scientists think that presidential elections are drawing near in Ukraine. Vitaliy Kulik, director of the Center for the Study of Civil Society Problems, noted that Russia "needs a specialist who would play a more subtle game and not make such mistakes as were made in 2004." He noted that Chernomyrdin had formed close relations with Yuliya Tymoshenko, and that might worry Moscow.
***

Vadim Karasev, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Global Strategies, thinks that the Russian authorities are much more worried about the inability of the embassy, under Chernomyrdin's guidance, to switch to a new format of interstate relations, devoid of the factor of informal contact between the leaders of the states. He noted that Chernomyrdin was a successful diplomat in the days of presidents Leonid Kuchma and Boris Yeltsin. In the changed political conditions, the functions of the ambassador have amounted "to the role of a mere wedding general (VIP)."

Read On

Rada: No grand coalition

0 comments

A mistake to post about PR-BYuT coalition until it actually happens. In the fall, the idea was floated, but it faded away just as it did this time. Perhaps it was another personality clash between the two leaders or perhaps it was disagreements over the constitutional amendments. Tymoshenko says that no one wanted to be held responsible for any unpopular decisions. Another way to look at what she said; the upcoming election season is making everyone else more risk averse. Yanukovich would benefit the most from the current crisis, perhaps that’s why he favors early presidential and Rada elections. The same article from BBC Ukraine also mentions this concerning law on dismissing the Rada.

Згідно з українським законом, Верховну Раду не може бути розпущено після 17 липня – за 6 місяців до виборів президента.

So according to the law, it cannot be dismissed after the 17 of July because of the presidential election. While law doesn't always win disputes involving elections in Ukraine, it does set a deadline (of sorts) for dismissing the Rada.

Read On

Economy: IMF sees sharper economic decline

0 comments

As the factions bicker over the date of the next presidential election, the economic picture in Ukraine gets worse. According to Bloomberg, the IMF expects the economy to contract by more than 8% this year.

“We do foresee a sharper-than-expected contraction,” Caroline Atkinson, director of external relations at the IMF, told reporters today in Washington, adding that the numbers are still being worked out. “Obviously we are looking at the strains of the budget from the deeper contraction and from the continued financing need of Naftogaz.”

The IMF already announced it would increase the size of the loan disbursements to Ukraine, while the EU held gas talks with Ukraine. Its only fitting that Yushchenko decided to remind voters of the economic improvements since 2005.
Read On

Assorted Links

0 comments

  1. Say good-bye (temporarily) to gambling. [Kyiv Post]
  2. EU discusses the gas situation with Ukraine. [Financial Times]
  3. Tizhden graphic showing current major and minor candidates for the presidency.
  4. Why Mazepa went the other way. [Den]
  5. Seeking a new defense minister. [RFE]
Read On

Assorted Links

0 comments

  1. Taras Kuzio's analysis of the Baloha-Yushchenko relationship.
  2. Great diagram showing the links between RusUroEnergo and Semyon Mogilevich, a mobster currently on trial. [RA]
  3. Kyiv's erratic mayor Leonid Chernovetsky faces (small) protests demanding his dismissal.[Kyiv Post]
  4. A comparison of Iran's presidential election to previous "color" revolution. [Oil and Glory]
Read On

Economy: IMF loan and Banks

0 comments

As a reminder that Ukraine's banking sector is still on shaky ground, the government bailed out three banks. It injected $1.3 billion into Ukrgazbank, Rodovid and Kyiv banks (via FT Alphaville).

Bloomberg reports that the IMF will increase payments to Ukraine. It expects to release the next tranche in June or July. Tymoshenko and IMF local head comments on both the increase in payments and the bank bail out are below.

“This essential financial support will allow Ukraine to get stronger” at a time of “gradual economic recovery,” Timoshenko said. “This of course can strengthen the hryvnia.”

The government today decided to buy 84.21 percent of VAT Ukrgazbank for 3.2 billion hryvnias ($418 million), 99.97 percent of VAT Rodovid Bank for 2.8 billion hryvnias and 99.93 percent of AK Bank Kiev for 3.563 billion hryvnias, Timoshenko said.

‘Restore Confidence’

The step helps Ukraine “restore confidence in the banking system,” Max Alier, the head of the Washington-based lender’s office in Ukraine, told reporters in Kiev today. The decision is “a very significant step in the right direction,” he said, adding that Ukrainian bank deposits are “coming back.”


Read On

Rada: BYuT and PR

0 comments

PR and BYuT seem close to a coalition deal. Lytvyn may join it, but OU-PSD and Communits won't join it. An annoucement could be made soon on the new coalition, if so expect the president to dissolve the Rada. Taras Kuzio shared his thoughts on a grand coalition in a recent post.
Read On

Gas: New confrontation possible

0 comments

Update: EU sending a fact finding team to Russia and Ukraine.

Russias puts pressure on Ukraine to pay up for gas and asks Europe to help. So after all the drama  from  the last gas dispute the two sides are heading toward another confrontation. Not a suprise that Ukraine can't pay its bills, it couldn't pay them on time when it was paying less for gas. 

Read On

New Alliance: Changes to Constitution

0 comments

A bit more on the on going meetings between BYuT and PR. From EDM (V. 6, Issue 106), the changes to the constitution supported by the two sides.  The article discusses some of the details on constitutional reform that BYuT and PR want. 

 

Yanukovych's reluctance to accept the election of the president within parliament was reportedly the main stumbling block. The first indication that the PRU and the BYT might soon come to a final agreement appeared towards the end of May, when the PRU withdrew its demands for Tymoshenko to resign and Yanukovych admitted in a televised interview that talks with the BYT had proceeded without interruption (Inter TV, May 24). On June 1, several Ukrainian newspapers quoted their sources within both camps as saying that Yanukovych and Tymoshenko at their meetings on May 30-31 agreed on a plan to change the constitution and form an alliance (Segodnya, Ukrainska Pravda, Ekonomicheskie Izvestia, June 1).

On June 2 Ukrainska Pravda published the details of the agreement:

1. The constitution will be changed to allow the president to be elected in parliament, and this could be Yanukovych (his election should be a formality as the PRU and BYT jointly control more than two-thirds of the parliament). 2. Presidential powers will be curtailed, but he will retain control over the Siloviki. 3. Tymoshenko will carry on as prime minister presiding over a cabinet consisting of representatives of the BYT, the PRU and possibly several more parties 4. The local self-government system will be reformed, enabling regional governors to be elected locally. 5. The party scoring the largest number of votes in a parliamentary election will control 226 seats in parliament, i.e. an overall majority. 6. The next parliamentary election will be held in 2014 rather than 2012 - this should convince hesitating deputies to support constitutional reform as they will be guaranteed two more years in parliament (Ukrainska Pravda, June 2).

 

Naturally, I find the change to the presidency the most interesting part since it eliminates an institution whose efficacy has been lacking. The Moldovan Parliament also elects the president, but not sure who else in the former Soviet Union uses this format besides them. (The Moldovan Parliament just failed to elect a new president after the last one, Voronin, termed out. The country now faces new elections.)                                                     

Keeping the president in the control of the security services is pointless if the president's powers are significantly curtailed by the Cabinet.  Why not turn the presidency into a ceremonial officer like Italy? Yes, I know this is probably a concession to Yanukovich who doesn't want a toothless presidency. While his election to the new presidency may be easy, the sides will not remain partners, how will this new format survive a breakdown in cooperation?

Read On

Rada: New Coalition?

0 comments

As noted in earlier posts (here, here) BYuT and Regions may form a grand coalition. The two sides are still considering whether to form one. Yushchenko doesn't like the idea of a grand coalition; he sees it as a threat to his power. He also calls it a threat to democracy and will split the country. BYuT claims that he has written the decrees calling for early presidential and Rada elections. If there is a new coalition, he'll use them. OU-PSD doesn't support joining a broad coalition that includes the two major parties, but this is the pro-presidential faction.

By calling an election, the president is betting on election chaos to keep the two sides away from each other. He also signs his own demise by issuing those decrees; Yushchenko has little chance of winning the presidency. The president would rather go down this road, than see his two rivals gang up on him.

Read On
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)